# Florida Senate math gets rough for Nixon > Angie Nixon’s upset primary win shook Florida politics, but new polling shows how steep her Senate race remains. - Title: Florida Senate math gets rough for Nixon · Newsweek | Shortify - Summary: Angie Nixon’s upset primary win shook Florida politics, but new polling shows how steep her Senate race remains. Nixon’s path depends less on one poll than… - Keywords: florida politics, senate, polling, democrats, turnout, Florida, math, gets, rough, Nixon, Newsweek - Source: Newsweek — https://newsweek.com/angie-nixons-polls-compared-to-other-democrats-who-tried-to-flip-florida-12446322 - Published: 2026-09-15T20:43:06+00:00 - Read time: 3 min - Topics: florida politics, senate, polling, democrats, turnout ## Nixon faces history Angie Nixon is trying to give Florida Democrats their first U.S. Senate win since 2012. A new poll shows Republican incumbent Ashley Moody ahead by 7 points. ## The gap is real Quantus Insights has Moody leading 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. More than 90 percent of decided voters said their choice is locked in. ## Moody holds the map Moody leads in every media market except Gainesville and Orlando. Even in Nixon’s Jacksonville home base, the poll shows Moody ahead 58 percent to 38 percent. ## Nixon blames the model Nixon’s campaign says standard polls miss populist campaigns built around working-class voters, independents, and people who rarely vote. > the most important poll of the cycle will be votes cast in November ## Past flips looked different The last Democrat to flip this seat was Bob Graham in 1986. He led by double digits for much of that race and won by nearly 10 points. ## Nelson was the peak Bill Nelson won another Democratic Senate flip in 2000, then won again by 13 points in 2012. That was the last Florida Senate race where polls understated a Democrat’s margin. ## Republicans pulled away Since 2016, Florida Senate races have mostly moved toward Republicans. Rubio beat Patrick Murphy, Scott narrowly beat Nelson, then Rubio and Scott won by double digits. ## The state shifted Republicans now have about 5.61 million active registered voters in Florida, compared with 4.07 million Democrats. That gives the GOP an edge of roughly 1.54 million voters. ## Moody has won statewide Moody enters the race as an incumbent with a strong statewide record. In 2022, she won reelection as attorney general with 60.6 percent of the vote. ## Nixon shocked Democrats Nixon reached the general election by beating Alex Vindman, despite a huge money gap. Vindman raised about $16 million, while Nixon raised just under $1 million. ## Grassroots beat TV Nixon skipped much of the traditional broadcast strategy and leaned into social media, volunteers, and field work. Her campaign argues that same model can scale statewide. > organized people can and will beat corporate money again ## The primary had a pattern Nixon’s win fit a year when some anti-Trump resistance figures lost to more progressive Democrats. But South Florida moderates also beat progressive challengers by wide margins. ## Turnout is the puzzle Strategists say the race turns on who actually votes. Nixon’s coalition includes younger and minority voters, groups that can be harder to model and harder to turn out. ## Hispanic support matters Steve Schale says Democrats need stronger base turnout, a big independent margin, and some crossover Republicans. He also points to lost trust with Hispanic voters as a deeper problem. > That is just the math ## DSA remains a test Nixon’s recent DSA membership is treated by some Democrats as an obstacle and by others as a distraction. Eduardo Gamarra warns that attacking her could hurt Black enthusiasm. > The only way to maintain Black enthusiasm is to not attack Black candidates. ## Key takeaway Nixon’s path depends less on one poll than on turnout, independents, and whether Democrats can rebuild support in a state that has moved right.