# Gerp Poll Widens Flávio Lead to 53% to 47%

> Gerp poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 53-47 in Brazil's runoff election.
- Title: Gerp Poll Widens Flávio Lead to 53% to 47% · The Rio Times
- Summary: Gerp poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 53-47 in Brazil's runoff election. Gerp poll widens Flávio Bolsonaro's lead over Lula to 53% to 47% for Brazil's…
- Keywords: gerp, flávio bolsonaro, lula, brazil, presidential runoff, election polls, runoff election, news, world, politics, Poll, Widens
- Source: The Rio Times — https://riotimesonline.com/gerp-poll-flavio-53-lula-47-runoff-2026
- Author: Andrés Morales
- Published: 2026-10-20T18:45:47+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: gerp, flávio bolsonaro, lula, brazil, presidential runoff, election polls, runoff election, news, world, politics
## Gerp Poll Update
Gerp Mercadologia published a new runoff survey on Tuesday 20 October showing Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula 53% to 47% of valid votes.
## Lead Widens
The poll widens Flávio's lead from 52% to 48% on 16 October to 53% to 47% on 20 October, increasing the gap by two points.
## Margin of Error
Gerp's survey has a 2 percentage point margin of error based on interviews with 2,400 voters between 15 and 19 October.
## Valid Votes
Valid votes exclude blank and spoiled ballots, matching how Brazil's electoral court (TSE) reports results.
## Runoff Date
Brazil's presidential runoff election occurs on Sunday 25 October, with the winner taking office for a four-year term.
## Prediction Markets
Polymarket shows Flávio Bolsonaro with a 77.1% chance of winning the runoff and Lula with 22.5% (US$189 million traded).
## Margin of Error
The six-point gap lies outside each candidate's 2-point margin of error, meaning the lead is not certain.
## What's Next
The next Gerp poll could move the average again before Sunday's runoff vote, as the survey uses a three-day moving average.
## What's Unknown
Gerp's TSE registration number, who paid for the survey, and the confidence level remain undisclosed.
## Key takeaway

Gerp poll widens Flávio Bolsonaro's lead over Lula to 53% to 47% for Brazil's 2026 presidential runoff.