# Harvard team predicts suicide attempts a week in advance

> New research using real-time smartphone surveys predicted 75% of suicide attempts within seven days, offering hope for earlier intervention.
- Title: Harvard team predicts suicide attempts a week in advance
- Summary: New research using real-time smartphone surveys predicted 75% of suicide attempts within seven days, offering hope for earlier intervention. Agitation is a…
- Keywords: harvard university, matthew nock, suicide prevention, mental health, smartphone surveys, real-time monitoring, suicide prediction, journal of psychopathology and clinical, psychiatric treatment, adolescent mental health, news, entertainment
- Source: New York Post — https://nypost.com/2026/09/15/health/harvard-scientists-predicted-75-of-suicide-attempts-a-week-before-occurrence
- Published: 2026-09-15T21:18:23+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: harvard university, matthew nock, suicide prevention, mental health, smartphone surveys, real-time monitoring, suicide prediction, journal of psychopathology and clinical, psychiatric treatment, adolescent mental health, news, entertainment
## Suicide is hard to predict
Warning signs are subtle and fleeting. For Americans aged 10 to 34, suicide is the second-leading cause of death.
## Most models predict too far out
Typical suicide-prediction models focus on months, years, or even decades. Harvard researchers wanted a much tighter time frame.
## Real-time surveys tracked 600 people
Matthew Nock led a study of high-risk adults and teens who had presented to hospitals with suicidal thoughts or behavior. They received smartphone surveys up to six times daily.
## 75% of attempts predicted accurately
The team predicted 75% of suicide attempts and 87% of suicide-related events in the week before they occurred.
## Agitation beats depression as a signal
For every additional point on the agitation scale, odds of attempting suicide increased by 11%. Agitation proved a stronger indicator than depression.

> 90% of people who survived a suicide attempt reported feeling an urge to alleviate psychological agitation and pain that turned out to be temporal.
## Alerts enabled immediate intervention
A real-time alert system intervened when someone showed intent to attempt. The goal is to build a scalable system to keep people safe before events occur.
## Wearables could track more signals
Nock's lab is exploring wearable sensors to monitor sleep, heart rate, and voice signatures. Interventions could remind people of therapy tools or prompt them to reach out.
## Key takeaway

Agitation is a stronger predictor of suicide risk than depression, with each point increase on the agitation scale raising attempt odds by 11%.