# Holiday Ecommerce Sales Forecast Hits $275 Billion Amid Economic Strain

> Adobe predicts U.S. holiday online sales will reach $275.1 billion despite rising consumer economic worries
- Title: Holiday Ecommerce Sales Forecast Hits $275 Billion Amid…
- Summary: Adobe predicts U.S. holiday online sales will reach $275.1 billion despite rising consumer economic worries Ecommerce sales will hit record $275.1 billion…
- Keywords: adobe, ecommerce, holiday shopping, consumer sentiment, cyber monday, buy now pay later, circana, mckinsey, walmart, amazon, Holiday, Sales
- Source: Adweek — https://adweek.com/commerce/holiday-ecommerce-shopping-to-hit-275-billion-despite-consumer-strain-according-to-adobe
- Author: Mitchell Parton
- Published: 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: adobe, ecommerce, holiday shopping, consumer sentiment, cyber monday, buy now pay later, circana, mckinsey, walmart, amazon
## Adobe's holiday sales forecast
Adobe Analytics expects U.S. online retail sales to hit $275.1 billion this holiday season, a 6.7% year-over-year increase

> Adobe's forecast is based on more than one trillion visits to U.S. ecommerce sites across 100 million products and 18 categories
## Consumer sentiment decline
Consumer sentiment has fallen 15% this year according to a September University of Michigan survey
## AI traffic growth
AI traffic to U.S. ecommerce sites will rise 130% year over year during the holiday season
## Buy now pay later surge
Buy now pay later will drive $21.3 billion in November and December, up 6.6% from last year
## Circana's conservative view
Circana expects holiday sales to be more conservative than Adobe's forecast due to consumer financial strain

> Macroeconomically, we are starting to see a lot of the pressure that has been on people's shoulders around gas prices, broader affordability constraints, and the macroeconomic choices people are making
## Consumer optimism trends
Forty-five percent of consumers plan to start holiday shopping by October with focus on fun and comfort

> People have that as the undercurrent in their brains
## Top holiday sellers
Top sellers include Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4, Grand Theft Auto VI, and new iPhone Duo

> We're not seeing that people are afraid to buy, but I think what they're buying are family moments
## Elf on the Shelf growth
Elf on the Shelf box-set revenue rose 90% year-over-year with pre-orders up 66%

> People truly are looking for nostalgia and comfort
## Walmart discount strategy
Walmart expects deep discounts with electronics peaking at 30% off listed prices

> We're ready to drive everyday low cost so that we can reinvest into price and experience
## Amazon Big Deal Days
Amazon's October Prime Day will drive $9.9 billion in spending with discounts peaking at 19% off

> Amazon's October event has changed the shape of the holiday season
## Key takeaway

Ecommerce sales will hit record $275.1 billion this holiday season with 6.7% year-over-year growth