# Housing Notes: No Midterm Mortgage Rate Conspiracy

> Midterm mortgage rates didn't drop before elections, debunking the conspiracy theory.
- Title: Housing Notes: No Midterm Mortgage Rate Conspiracy | Shortify
- Summary: Midterm mortgage rates didn't drop before elections, debunking the conspiracy theory. Since 1982, home sales fell more often than rose during midterm years…
- Keywords: midterm elections, housing market, mortgage rates, federal reserve, home sales, 30-year mortgage rates, federal elections, real estate, business, Housing, Notes, Midterm
- Source: The Real Deal — https://therealdeal.com/national/2026/10/30/theres-no-midterm-mortgage-rate-conspiracy
- Author: Jonathan Miller
- Published: 2026-10-30T20:00:00+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: midterm elections, housing market, mortgage rates, federal reserve, home sales, 30-year mortgage rates, federal elections, real estate, business
## Midterm Housing Market Conspiracy Theory
The article debunks the idea that the Federal Reserve lowers mortgage rates to help the incumbent party win elections.
## Methodology
The author compared annual home sales and 30-year mortgage rates around federal midterm elections since 1982.
## Results
Home sales fell more often than rose during midterm years, and mortgage rates showed no pattern favoring the ruling party.
## Fed Actions
The Fed raised rates in September 2024 and held them steady in October 2024 despite White House pressure for cuts.
## Final Thought
Forcing mortgage rate cuts before elections would likely push rates up, not down, as the Fed is not good at swinging elections through housing.
## Key takeaway

Since 1982, home sales fell more often than rose during midterm years, and mortgage rates showed no pattern favoring the ruling party.