# Illinois Beat Duke? Still Probably Unranked

> Six AP votes and a Week 2 win over Duke still might not be enough to crack the Top 25, and the math explains why.
- Title: Illinois Beat Duke? Still Probably Unranked | Shortify
- Summary: Six AP votes and a Week 2 win over Duke still might not be enough to crack the Top 25, and the math explains why. Getting ranked is not about your own win…
- Keywords: college football, illinois, ap top 25, rankings, duke, sports, Beat, Still, Probably, Unranked, Illinois Fighting Illini On SI
- Source: Illinois Fighting Illini On SI — https://si.com/college/illinois/football/two-score-win-duke-guarantee-illinois-top-25-ranking
- Published: 2026-09-11T19:09:38+00:00
- Read time: 2 min
- Topics: college football, illinois, ap top 25, rankings, duke, sports
## Unranked, but close
Illinois opened the season outside the polls and stayed there after a 42-23 win over UAB. Still, the Illini picked up six votes in the latest AP Top 25.

> it's not like the orange and blue are all that far away
## The Duke test
Duke visits Champaign on Saturday as a real Power 4 opponent. The question is whether a two-score win is enough to push Illinois into ranked territory.
## Two teams in the same tier
Duke sits around the top 35, roughly where Illinois sits. The Blue Devils beat Tulane, a playoff team last year, but neither side is a CFP contender now.

> neither team is exactly knocking on the door of CFP status this year
## A win alone won't do it
Short of a blowout, beating Duke likely leaves Illinois outside the Top 25 next week. Too many unranked teams are stacked ahead of them.

> unless Illinois beats the snot out of Duke, Illinois is a long shot
## Ten teams in the way
Boise State, Florida, Michigan, Arizona, Memphis, South Carolina, Western Michigan, Pittsburgh, Navy and UCLA all drew more votes than Illinois this week.
## Some of them will win
Memphis and Boise State play each other, so one gets a ranking-worthy result. Michigan hosts Oklahoma and Arizona goes to BYU, and wins there would lock both in.

> the winner of the Memphis-Boise State game is likely to find its way into the rankings
## Illinois needs upsets
To climb in, No. 21 Iowa would have to lose to Iowa State and No. 23 Missouri would have to fall to Kansas. One of those is believable. Both is a stretch.

> I could see one of those two teams losing, but not both
## And more upsets after that
Michigan, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Navy and UCLA would all need to lose the same weekend. That is a lot of dominoes falling in one direction.

> banking on Pittsburgh, Navy and UCLA also losing is a big ask
## The call: top 30, not Top 25
Expect Illinois to handle Duke and climb the unofficial pecking order into the top 30. The official poll should still leave them out Monday.

> expect Illinois to move inside the (unofficial) top 30 in the polls next week, but not the official rankings
## Key takeaway

Getting ranked is not about your own win, it is about how many teams ahead of you lose on the same Saturday.