# Inside Venezuela's new oil deals, from Caracas > A rare 24 hours in Caracas, the deals that were signed, and why $100 oil now has Wall Street rewriting every forecast. - Title: Inside Venezuela's new oil deals, from Caracas · CNBC - Summary: A rare 24 hours in Caracas, the deals that were signed, and why $100 oil now has Wall Street rewriting every forecast. The Venezuela deals are a bet on… - Keywords: oil, venezuela, energy, markets, chevron, business, finance, Inside, Venezuela's, deals, Caracas, CNBC - Source: CNBC — https://cnbc.com/2026/09/11/the-inside-story-on-the-historic-us-venezuela-oil-deal-and-how-it-will-work.html - Author: Brian Sullivan - Published: 2026-09-11T16:23:06+00:00 - Read time: 4 min - Topics: oil, venezuela, energy, markets, chevron, business, finance ## A rare seat in Caracas CNBC was one of a handful of outlets allowed to fly to Caracas with the U.S. energy secretary to watch the oil deals get signed. The whole trip lasted barely 24 hours. > It was one of the most eye-opening and fascinating business trips in my 30-year career ## The airport was still shut A June earthquake had closed Simón Bolívar International. Theirs was one of the only planes to land, followed by a 20-minute bus ride downtown. ## Buildings frozen in the 80s Downtown and the business district look built in the 1980s and 1990s, when oil money was still flowing. The remains of old wealth are visible everywhere. > You could see the remains of wealth the country and its people once had ## From 3.5 million to under 1 Venezuelan output peaked at about 3.5 million barrels a day in 1997. Through Chavez and Maduro it collapsed to under 1 million for much of 2025, only recently climbing back above that line. ## Russian and Chinese firms got richer While outside operators pulled money out of the country, ordinary Venezuelans got poorer. That gap is the backdrop to every new agreement signed last week. > While many Russian and Chinese firms got richer, the Venezuelan people got poorer ## Not one deal, but several This is a set of separate agreements, not a single package. Confusing them is the fastest way to misread what was actually signed. ## Chevron goes its own way Chevron cut its own deal to expand production in a country it has operated in for over 100 years. That agreement is distinct from everything the U.S. government signed. ## Washington's stake in NABEP The other deals center on the U.S. taking a stake in North American Blue Energy Partners, a private operator run by investor Alejandro Betancourt. ## The operator has warts Betancourt was investigated in Switzerland for potential financial crimes, though no charges followed. Officials argue that in places like Venezuela, spotless partners are rarely on offer. > oftentimes the operators you have to deal with are not without some warts ## Equity traded for barrels The U.S. will swap its NABEP investment for future oil production. That structure, alongside ENI and private firms like Aspect Energy, is the whole mechanism. ## Can it reach 2 million Energy Secretary Chris Wright expects a quick ramp of a couple hundred thousand barrels a day. With Chevron's roughly $7 billion across three projects, 2 million barrels a day looks reachable. ## Money meant to stay home The agreements are built so some proceeds and tax revenue flow back to Venezuelans rather than to foreign actors. Whether that holds is the open question. ## Not colonialism, he argues Sullivan pushes back on the charge that America is taking the oil, pointing to what Russia, China and Cuba extracted for years, leaving pools of crude gunking up the landscape. > We are making deals with private operators with an eye toward selling more oil ## Journalists weeping at the palace Venezuelan reporters were visibly moved to be back inside Miraflores, some openly crying. Many had been banned, silenced, or too afraid to enter. > That is what we can hopefully help change. It's not just about oil ## Oil over $100, diesel at $6 U.S. crude is above $100, Brent slightly higher, and diesel hit $6 a gallon for the first time in nominal terms. Headlines are moving prices by the hour. ## Captains won't sail back Flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain well below pre-war levels. Shipowners say some captains refuse to re-enter the Arabian Gulf for fear of getting stuck. ## Refining is the real problem America hasn't built a big refinery since the 1970s. Gulf refineries are hobbled by shipping fears, and Ukraine keeps hitting Russia's, the world's gas station. > Oil isn't the real worry: it's lack of refining capacity ## Refiners ran away with it Wide crack spreads made refining stocks the trade of the quarter. The worst performer is up 47% since July 1, the best another 22 points above that. ## Wall Street can't agree Barclays calls the energy outlook the best in two decades. JPMorgan sees Brent averaging $87, UBS $95 then $90, Bank of America $85 falling to $70 by 2028. > The energy transition increasingly looks like a process of energy addition rather than substitution ## Now it's the Fed's problem The oil-bond yield correlation has hit 0.75, above Great Financial Crisis levels, with the 10-year nearing 5%. A rate hike at the September 16 meeting looks increasingly likely. > I'm not sure what a slight interest rate hike is going to do to stem the impact of a war-related oil price shock ## Key takeaway The Venezuela deals are a bet on production, not a land grab, but the bigger squeeze is refining capacity, not crude supply.