# International energy chief warns no credible path to oil price normalization by 2027

> IEA head says 2027 oil prices won't normalize due to Middle East conflicts.
- Title: International energy chief warns no credible path to oil…
- Summary: IEA head says 2027 oil prices won't normalize due to Middle East conflicts. IEA executive director Fatih Birol states there is no credible pathway for global…
- Keywords: oil prices, strait of hormuz, oil supply, gas prices, iea, fatih birol, middle east conflicts, brent crude, news, politics, world, International
- Source: Straight Arrow — https://san.com/cc/international-energy-chief-no-credible-pathway-for-prices-to-normalize-in-2027
- Published: 2026-10-21T17:38:38+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: oil prices, strait of hormuz, oil supply, gas prices, iea, fatih birol, middle east conflicts, brent crude, news, politics, world
## IEA executive director warns
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol states there is no credible pathway for global oil prices to normalize in 2027.

> I don’t see any credible pathway that 2027 will be a year of normalization.
## Middle East conflicts persist
Birol warns overlapping crises in the Middle East threaten to disrupt oil markets and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

> I’m very worried that there will be some overlapping crises in the Middle East.
## Strait of Hormuz traffic drops
Oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen below pre-war levels, with 20% of global oil supply passing through the strait.

> Traffic of oil tankers through the Strait has fluctuated throughout the war with Iran but has not recovered to pre-war levels when 20% of the global oil supply passed through the Strait.
## Brent crude prices remain high
Brent crude has stayed above $100 per barrel since September, with U.S. gas prices exceeding $4 per gallon.

> Brent crude has mostly lingered above $100 per barrel since September, with the average U.S. gas price well above $4 per gallon.
## Shipping costs surge
Oil shipping costs have risen from $3 to $20 per barrel due to war-zone risk premiums and increased maritime fuel costs.

> According to a Goldman Sachs report, oil shipping costs have risen from roughly $3 to $20 per barrel.
## Industry expects prolonged instability
A majority of oil industry executives expect market instability to extend into the second half of next year.

> The Dallas Fed Energy Survey for the third quarter of 2026 found a majority of industry executives expect the market instability to extend into the second half of next year.
## Fewer than half expect normalization
Fewer than half of executives anticipate normal Persian Gulf exports before the third quarter of 2027.

> Fewer than half of the executives said they expect 'normal levels' of crude exports from the Persian Gulf before the third quarter of 2027.
## Price relief unlikely soon
The IEA head states that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be relied upon to ensure stable oil flows, with no credible pathway to price normalization by 2027.

> It can be closed again.
## Key takeaway

IEA executive director Fatih Birol states there is no credible pathway for global oil prices to normalize by 2027 amid ongoing Middle East conflicts.