# Iran believes it can outlast America > Tehran thinks it has won great-power status by surviving U.S. bombardment and rallying its people, and plans to keep fighting until Washington accepts defeat. - Title: Iran believes it can outlast America · Foreign Affairs - Summary: Tehran thinks it has won great-power status by surviving U.S. bombardment and rallying its people, and plans to keep fighting until Washington accepts… - Keywords: iran, united states, persian gulf, sanctions, military conflict, great-power status, strait of hormuz, trump administration, mojtaba khamenei, middle east, world, politics - Source: Foreign Affairs — https://foreignaffairs.com/iran/irans-theory-victory - Author: Narges Bajoghli - Published: 2026-10-09T08:00:00+00:00 - Read time: 4 min - Topics: iran, united states, persian gulf, sanctions, military conflict, great-power status, strait of hormuz, trump administration, mojtaba khamenei, middle east, world, politics ## Trump's Iran strategy has failed The Trump administration bombed Iran for months and imposed fresh sanctions with a naval blockade, but failed to bend Iran's will or force concessions at the negotiating table. ## Treasury Secretary vows economic asphyxiation On September first, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared, we are going to economically asphyxiate this regime, expressing confidence that Iran will soon concede or collapse. > We are going to economically asphyxiate this regime ## Iran sees itself as winning Tehran believes it will defeat the United States. It survived bombardment, retaliated ferociously, damaged American military bases, and obstructed the Strait of Hormuz. ## Iran's three strategic goals Tehran's officials share ambitions to evict U.S. forces from the Persian Gulf, force Washington to remove all sanctions, and get the United States to accept Iran as a great power. ## Iran's theory of victory Tehran believes it can hold out and inflict enough pain that the United States will end its containment of Iran by wreaking havoc on energy markets and continuing military strikes. ## Assassination of Khamenei backfired The American and Israeli militaries assassinated former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but this prompted a mass show of support rather than an uprising against the government. ## Iranians rallied around the flag Khamenei's death brought out ardent supporters who marched nightly in main cities. Many Iranians living abroad returned home, including singers Mohsen Namjoo and Bijan Mortazavi. ## War changed Iranian attitudes toward U.S. Previously most Iranians hoped Tehran would seek better relations with Washington. But Trump's threats to annihilate Iran and repeated bombings convinced Iranians the U.S. wants to obliterate their country. ## Dissident sees American promises as false Ali, a forty-five-year-old long-time dissident imprisoned for activism, said, we believed so much in the American promise. Yet with this war, it's obvious the Americans sold us a false bill of goods. > We believed so much in the American promise. Yet with this war and everything that Trump and his administration have said and done, it's obvious the Americans sold us a false bill of goods. ## Iran's economy built to withstand sanctions Iran spent the past fifteen years developing an economy designed to withstand American economic warfare, forging strong relations with neighboring traders and becoming nearly self-sufficient on food. ## No shortages despite economic hardship Hamid Reza, an engineer who travels between Isfahan and Tehran, said, it's incredible how well-run everything has been inside of the country. Things are expensive, but there have been no shortages. > It's incredible how well-run everything has been inside of the country. Things are expensive, but there have been no shortages whatsoever across the country. ## Hard-liners now control Iran's security Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, moved trusted hard-line lieutenants to key roles, including national security adviser Mohsen Rezaei and Hossein Taeb, commander of domestic paramilitary forces. ## Hard-liners reject U.S. diplomacy Iran's hard-line leaders believe the United States cannot be trusted because it attacked Iran twice during negotiations and walked away from the memorandum of understanding signed in June. ## Moderates want diplomacy but no surrender Iranian moderates including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf seek diplomatic solutions, but all Iranian elites agree that Iran should not surrender to American demands. > No one is saying Iran should surrender. ## Iran's demands for any deal Iran's moderates say diplomacy must start with the United States returning to the June memorandum, which Iran believes committed Washington to unfreezing all Iranian assets and lifting all sanctions. ## Iran attacks across the whole region If war resumes, Iran will attack across the whole region, not just nearby. It has already struck American military bases and facilities in Jordan, Syria, and across the Persian Gulf. ## Iran targets energy markets to coerce U.S. Tehran attacked Qatar's Ras Laffan gas field and oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates' Fujairah port, and is striking tankers to drive up oil prices and force Washington toward economic concessions. ## Iranian proxies attack Saudi oil infrastructure Iranian-backed Iraqi forces attacked a vital oil pipeline carrying Saudi Arabia's oil to Red Sea facilities. Houthi allies in Yemen attacked Saudi oil facilities and captured territory near Bab el Mandeb Strait. ## Iran claims great-power status Tehran believes it has won great-power status and commands newfound international respect. Iranian officials cheered their delegation's reception at September meetings of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS. ## Iran ready to fight on indefinitely Iran's elites have coalesced around a shared strategy. The government believes the Iranian people are willing to endure economic pain and suffering if it means they will win, and Tehran is confident it can prevail… > are willing to endure economic pain and the suffering, if it means that [they] are going to win. ## Key takeaway Iran believes it can force the United States from the Persian Gulf and lift sanctions by inflicting enough economic and military pain that Washington accepts Iranian victory.