# Kansas Senate Race Tightens

> Democrat Adam Hamilton edges Republican Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate race amid shifting polls.
- Title: Kansas Senate Race Tightens · Newsweek | Shortify
- Summary: Democrat Adam Hamilton edges Republican Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate race amid shifting polls. Adam Hamilton leads Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate race by…
- Keywords: kansas, senate, adam hamilton, roger marshall, democrat, republican, polls, independents, emerson college polling, kansas city, Race, Tightens
- Source: Newsweek — https://newsweek.com/adam-hamilton-roger-marshall-kansas-senate-race-odds-polls-12460819
- Published: 2026-09-18T15:53:00+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: kansas, senate, adam hamilton, roger marshall, democrat, republican, polls, independents, emerson college polling, kansas city
## Kansas Senate Race Tightens
Kansas Senate race shows signs of becoming more competitive than Republicans expected in a state where Democrats haven't won a Senate seat in nearly a century.
## New Poll Shows Hamilton Lead
A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey gives Democrat Adam Hamilton a 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Republican Senator Roger Marshall, with libertarian David Graham at 4 percent.
## Hamilton's Campaign Background
Hamilton, founder of the country's largest United Methodist Church, is trying to become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Kansas since 1932.
## Vice President Support
Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to make a stop in Olathe, Kansas, on Monday to show support for Marshall.
## Polls Show Tight Race
An earlier co/efficient poll showed Marshall leading Hamilton 49 percent to 44 percent, with 5 percent undecided, while a Global Strategy Group poll found Hamilton narrowly ahead 44 percent to 43 percent.
## Prediction Markets Favor Marshall
Kalshi gives Marshall a 74 percent chance of winning compared with 26 percent for Hamilton, while Polymarket gives Marshall a 71 percent chance and Hamilton 28 percent.
## Independents Drive Close Race
Hamilton leads independents 42 percent to 27 percent, while Marshall is underwater 41 percent favorable to 48 percent unfavorable.
## Election Forecast Shift
Cook Political Report shifted the contest from 'solid Republican' to 'likely Republican' after Hamilton won the Democratic primary.
## Senate Race Consequence
Hamilton's victory could help Democrats take control of the Senate, while Marshall warns it could shift Kansas toward Democratic influence.
## Key takeaway

Adam Hamilton leads Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate race by 45-43 percent in latest poll, with independents driving the close.