# Keating warns Aukus locks Australia into losing China war > Former PM says the submarine deal makes Australia a target and surrenders sovereignty to US military interests. - Title: Keating warns Aukus locks Australia into losing China war - Summary: Former PM says the submarine deal makes Australia a target and surrenders sovereignty to US military interests. Paul Keating argues Aukus commits Australia… - Keywords: paul keating, aukus, australia, us military, china, submarines, sovereignty, michael mccaul, david shoebridge, taiwan, nuclear weapons, indo-pacific - Source: the Guardian — https://theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/18/paul-keating-aukus-locking-australia-into-us-china-war - Published: 2026-09-18T04:06:31+00:00 - Read time: 2 min - Topics: paul keating, aukus, australia, us military, china, submarines, sovereignty, michael mccaul, david shoebridge, taiwan, nuclear weapons, indo-pacific ## Keating warns Aukus locks in war Former PM Paul Keating says the submarine deal commits Australia to any future US conflict with China, a war America would certainly lose. > a war America would certainly lose ## US would abandon Australia after defeat Keating argues the US would retreat to San Diego after losing to China, leaving Australia vulnerable to Chinese retaliation for participating in the conflict. > scuttle itself back to San Diego, leaving Australia vulnerable to China ## Sovereignty being shredded, Keating says Australia's increasing military integration with the US, especially through Aukus, is eroding Australian sovereignty and locking the country into US military decisions. > sovereignty effectively being shredded ## McCaul says Australia already a target Republican congressman Michael McCaul told Australian leaders that Australia is already a target for US enemies, but greater US military integration would provide better protection. > Australia is a target ## US assumes Australia backs Taiwan war McCaul said the US military establishment assumes Australia would participate in any US intervention to protect Taiwan, and this assumption was never questioned. > I don't think it was even questioned. It's just obvious. ## Nuclear subs could be nuclear armed McCaul said it is logical to assume US nuclear-powered submarines rotating through Australian bases could carry nuclear weapons after 2032, under the Aukus agreement. ## US controls over half Australian bases The US military has access to more than half of Australia's military installations, including critical intelligence sites like Pine Gap that support US military operations. ## Shoebridge warns of beachhead danger Greens senator David Shoebridge said Aukus positions Australia as a beachhead for US military operations against China, putting Australians in danger in someone else's war. > people get killed at a beachhead ## Aukus costs $368 billion to 2050s The multi-decade Aukus agreement is forecast to cost Australia up to $368 billion through the mid-2050s, with submarines entering service from 2032 onwards. ## Australia must store nuclear waste Australia will be responsible for securing and storing nuclear waste from its submarines for thousands of years, including high-level waste that poses weapons proliferation risks. ## Key takeaway Paul Keating argues Aukus commits Australia to a war it cannot win and leaves it vulnerable to Chinese retaliation.