# Labour Greens Opportunity Coalition Probability

> Labour, Greens and Opportunity coalition now 27.5% chance to form next government.
- Title: Labour Greens Opportunity Coalition Probability · NZ Herald
- Summary: Labour, Greens and Opportunity coalition now 27.5% chance to form next government. Labour, Green Party and Opportunity Party have a 27.5% probability of…
- Keywords: labour, green party, opportunity party, herald motu research, poll of polls, government formation, election 2026, politics, news, Greens, Opportunity, Coalition
- Source: NZ Herald — https://nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/poll-of-polls-chances-of-labourgreensopportunity-win-nearing-probability-of-re-elected-coalition/premium/KAH75OO47FCDRERBNRRAJHPW2Q
- Read time: 2 min
- Topics: labour, green party, opportunity party, herald motu research, poll of polls, government formation, election 2026, politics, news
## Poll of polls model
The latest Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls shows Labour, Green Party and Opportunity Party have a 27.5% chance to form New Zealand's next government.
## Coalition probability
Adding Te Pāti Māori increases the probability to 55.5% for a Labour, Green Party, Opportunity and Te Pāti Māori coalition.
## Opportunity party strength
Opportunity Party has crossed the 5% threshold with enough seats to decide the next government's composition.
## National coalition probability
National, New Zealand First and Act have a 30.6% probability of forming the next government, down from over 80% early this year.
## Campaign stance
Opportunity Party campaign chairman Kieran McAnulty prefers working with Opportunity over Te Pāti Māori in government.
## Coalition seat math
Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori secure 50 seats while Opportunity has 11, giving a one-seat majority without overhangs.
## National bloc seats
National, NZ First and Act bloc have only enough support for 59 seats, requiring position change on Opportunity to govern.
## Predicted party votes
National has highest predicted vote at 28.5%, followed by Labour at 26.5%, Green Party at 13.4%.
## Model methodology
The model runs thousands of election simulations to calculate probabilities while adjusting for pollsters' 'house effects'.
## Overhang strategy
Te Pāti Māori and coalition supporters deliberately try to cause an overhang by encouraging vote splitting.
## Coalition viability
Adding Opportunity to the coalition brings the probability of a four-party government to 99.9%.
## Party leadership stances
National leader Christopher Luxon and NZ First leader Winston Peters have ruled out working with Opportunity.
## Act leader position
Act leader David Seymour said he would be open to Opportunity if it meant returning to government.
## Election outcome
The model assumes no overhangs, with Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori securing 50 seats and Opportunity 11 for a one-seat majority.
## Next steps
National, NZ First and Act need to change their position on Opportunity to continue governing.
## Key takeaway

Labour, Green Party and Opportunity Party have a 27.5% probability of forming New Zealand's next government according to the latest Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls.