# Lula leads Brazil's first-round vote

> Lula edges Bolsonaro in Brazil's first-round election polls, likely runoff set for Oct 25.
- Title: Lula leads Brazil's first-round vote · The Straits Times
- Summary: Lula edges Bolsonaro in Brazil's first-round election polls, likely runoff set for Oct 25. Brazilian President Lula leads Senator Bolsonaro in first-round…
- Keywords: lula, bolsonaro, brazil, polls, runoff, first-round, sao paulo, news, world, leads, Brazil's, vote
- Source: The Straits Times — https://straitstimes.com/world/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-vote-cntmda-poll-shows
- Published: 2026-10-03T14:23:28+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: lula, bolsonaro, brazil, polls, runoff, first-round, sao paulo, news, world
## Polls show Lula ahead
A series of polls on Saturday showed Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva slightly ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro before Sunday's first-round vote.
## Runoff likely if no winner
If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes on Sunday, the two frontrunners advance to a second-round runoff on October 25.
## CNT/MDA poll results
CNT/MDA poll: Lula 47.8%, Bolsonaro 42.1%, Augusto Cury 3.6%, Ronaldo Caiado 3.4%, Renan Santos 1.7%, Romeu Zema 0.9% (2,007 surveyed, Sept 30-Oct 2).
## Datafolha poll results
Datafolha poll: Lula 45%, Bolsonaro 42%, Caiado 4%, Santos 3%, Cury 3%, Zema 1% (4,006 surveyed, Oct 2-3).
## Quaest poll results
Quaest poll: Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 45%, Cury 3%, Santos 3%, Caiado 3% (3,702 surveyed, Oct 2-3).
## AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll results
AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll: Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 44.1%, Santos 4.6%, Cury 2.1%, Caiado 1.4% (4,945 surveyed, Sept 27-Oct 2).
## Key takeaway

Brazilian President Lula leads Senator Bolsonaro in first-round polls with 47.8% to 42.1%, setting up a runoff on October 25.