# Midterm Elections and Trump Market Impact

> Midterm elections could boost or hurt Trump-era stock market returns based on historical data.
- Title: Midterm Elections and Trump Market Impact · The Motley Fool
- Summary: Midterm elections could boost or hurt Trump-era stock market returns based on historical data. Historical data shows divided Congress with Trump leads to…
- Keywords: midterm elections, trump, stock market, divided congress, s&p 500, dow jones, nasdaq composite, finance, money, Midterm, Elections, Market
- Source: The Motley Fool — https://fool.com/investing/2026/10/28/will-midterm-elections-cause-trump-bull-market-to-crash-history-says-good-and-bad-news
- Author: Sean Williams
- Published: 2026-10-28T11:06:02+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: midterm elections, trump, stock market, divided congress, s&p 500, dow jones, nasdaq composite, finance, money
## Trump Bull Market Performance
Wall Street has seen higher average annual returns under Trump than most other presidents over the last 130 years.
## Midterm Election Outlook
Republicans hold narrow leads in the House (218 of 435 seats) and Senate (53 of 100 seats) as of October 24.
## Prediction Markets
Traders on Polymarket believe there's a 66% chance Democrats will retake both houses of Congress.
## Historical Stock Returns
Divided Congress with Republican president produced the worst average annual return of 7.33% from 1926 to 2023.
## Potential Benefits
Ideological differences between parties make major legislation unlikely during Trump's second term.
## Potential Risks
Government shutdowns could hurt the stock market if Democrats retake Congress.
## Key takeaway

Historical data shows divided Congress with Trump leads to lower stock returns but still better than alternatives.