# Morgan Stanley Predicts 50% Bearish Election Outcome Odds

> Morgan Stanley reports 50% chance of Argentina's 2027 election outcome worsening financial stability.
- Title: Morgan Stanley Predicts 50% Bearish Election Outcome Odds
- Summary: Morgan Stanley reports 50% chance of Argentina's 2027 election outcome worsening financial stability.
- Keywords: argentina, morgan stanley, 2027 elections, bearish outcome, government bonds, country risk, Buenos Aires Herald
- Source: Buenos Aires Herald — https://buenosairesherald.com/economics/morgan-stanley-sees-a-50-odds-of-bearish-outcome-after-2027-elections
- Author: Juan Marcos Pollio
- Published: 2026-11-11T21:04:41+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: argentina, morgan stanley, 2027 elections, bearish outcome, government bonds, country risk, news
## Election Impact on Bonds
Argentine government bonds increasingly price a change in political direction after 2027 elections.
## Morgan Stanley Report
Morgan Stanley reports Argentine bonds price a 41-52% probability of bearish outcome after 2027 elections.
## Three Scenarios
Morgan Stanley assigns two-thirds of adverse scenarios to 'Muddle Through' and one-third to default.
## Bond Maturity Timeline
US$3.8 billion in government bonds mature on January 9, 2028, one month after new president takes office.
## Country Risk Rise
Argentina's country risk premium rose to 900 basis points, its highest level in a year.
## Key takeaway

Morgan Stanley says Argentine bonds now price a 50% probability of a bearish outcome after 2027 elections.