# National's path to power narrows

> National edges ahead of Labour in new poll as Opportunity Party holds key vote share.
- Title: National's path to power narrows · RNZ | Shortify
- Summary: National edges ahead of Labour in new poll as Opportunity Party holds key vote share. National leads Labour by 1 percentage point in a poll where Opportunity…
- Keywords: national, labour, opportunity party, new zealand first, act, te pāti māori, election 2026, politics, news, National's, path, power
- Source: RNZ — https://rnz.co.nz/news/political/1764664/national-s-path-to-power-narrows-in-new-poll
- Author: RNZ | Te Reo Irirangi o Aotearoa
- Published: 2026-10-06T06:10:00+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: national, labour, opportunity party, new zealand first, act, te pāti māori, election 2026, politics, news
## New poll shows National leading Labour
National Party takes lead with 29 percent support, edging up one point from Labour's 28 percent.
## Opportunity Party holds pivotal 7 percent
Opportunity Party registers 7 percent support, up one point, with eight MPs deciding election outcome.
## Other parties shift in poll
New Zealand First rises to 10 percent, ACT drops to 9 percent, Greens hold 16 percent.
## Coalition implications
National would win 35 MPs, New Zealand First 12, ACT 11 for a coalition bloc of 58 seats.
## Labour's potential majority
Labour would secure 33 MPs, Greens 20, Te Pāti Māori one for a total of 54 seats.
## Uncertainties in election math
Overhang seats could change results if National wins more than 35 electorates or Te Pāti Māori wins more than one.
## Key takeaway

National leads Labour by 1 percentage point in a poll where Opportunity Party's 7 percent support determines election outcome.