# New poll shows Labour edging ahead of National

> Labour gains narrow lead over National in election poll as Opportunity hits 5% threshold.
- Title: New poll shows Labour edging ahead of National · NZ Herald
- Summary: Labour gains narrow lead over National in election poll as Opportunity hits 5% threshold. Labour leads National in new poll at 29% to 28% with Opportunity at…
- Keywords: labour, national, opportunity, election, poll, new zealand, politics, news, shows, edging, ahead, NZ Herald
- Source: NZ Herald — https://nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2026-new-poll-shows-labour-edging-ahead-of-national-as-opportunity-hits-5/O3UA6PP5AZAFVEAFRHR7E4JV7U
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: labour, national, opportunity, election, poll, new zealand, politics, nz, news
## New poll results
Labour leads National in new poll at 29% to 28% with Opportunity at 5%.
## Polling methodology
Anacta poll conducted online from October 6 to 10 with 1352 New Zealanders aged 18+.
## Party standings
Greens up three points to 15%, New Zealand First stable at 10%, Act up one to 9%.
## Opportunity's position
Opportunity holds 5% with Labour preferred by 50% of voters.
## Voter expectations
43% expect Labour-led government up 4% from previous poll.
## Government performance
53% disapprove of National-led government performance.
## Age engagement
64% of over 60s follow campaign closely versus 35% of 18-29s.
## Political dynamics
National, Act and New Zealand First combined at 48% while Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori at 46%.
## Historical context
National's lowest result since November 2021 when Luxon took over as leader.
## Green Party status
Greens on best result since July 2017 when Jacinda Ardern took over.
## Gang controversy
Poll conducted before Mongrel Mob gang visit controversy engulfing Greens.
## Leadership race
Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon tied at 22% each in preferred Prime Minister race.
## Opportunity's role
Opportunity holds balance of power with only 5% support.
## Voter confidence
49% think country heading in wrong direction versus 40% right direction.
## Election impact
Opportunity's 5% threshold critical for coalition formation.
## Future implications
Labour and National tied with Opportunity holding balance of power.
## Key takeaway

Labour leads National in new poll at 29% to 28% with Opportunity at 5% as election approaches.