# Nobel Peace Prize 2026: Trump's Odds

> Trump's Nobel Peace Prize bid faces odds of 1% on prediction markets as humanitarian groups lead contenders.
- Title: Nobel Peace Prize 2026: Trump's Odds · Newsweek | Shortify
- Summary: Trump's Nobel Peace Prize bid faces odds of 1% on prediction markets as humanitarian groups lead contenders. Trump's Nobel Peace Prize bid faces 1% market…
- Keywords: nobel peace prize, trump, sudan emergency response rooms, mykola kuleba, save ukraine, save the children, yulia navalnaya, international court of justice, committee to protect journalists, kalshi prediction markets, polymarket, Nobel
- Source: Newsweek — https://newsweek.com/nobel-peace-prize-2026-winner-trump-award-12541915
- Published: 2026-10-09T03:03:10+00:00
- Read time: 2 min
- Topics: nobel peace prize, trump, sudan emergency response rooms, mykola kuleba, save ukraine, save the children, yulia navalnaya, international court of justice, committee to protect journalists, kalshi prediction markets, polymarket
## Trump's Nobel Bid
President Donald Trump renewed his case for the Nobel Peace Prize citing his record on international conflicts while acknowledging it's unlikely he will receive the award.
## Market Odds
Trump's contract trades at about 1 percent implied probability on prediction markets while Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms lead at 15 percent.
## Humanitarian Focus
Humanitarian organizations like Sudan relief groups are frequently awarded the prize because they save lives and are among the least controversial candidates.
## Sudan Emergency Response Rooms
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms are community-led volunteer networks providing humanitarian assistance during Sudan's civil war with 15 percent market odds.
## Mykola Kuleba
Mykola Kuleba founded Save Ukraine in 2014 to rescue Ukrainian children abducted by Russia and assist displaced families with 10 percent market odds.
## Save the Children
Save the Children ranks third on prediction markets at 7 percent with PRIO listing it as a strong possibility for an award focused on children in war.
## Yulia Navalnaya
Yulia Navalnaya chairs the Anti-Corruption Foundation founded by her late husband and trades at approximately 5 percent on prediction markets.
## International Court of Justice
The International Court of Justice has approximately 4 percent market odds and appears on PRIO's updated list alongside the International Criminal Court.
## Committee to Protect Journalists
The Committee to Protect Journalists trades at approximately 3 percent on prediction markets with PRIO including it on its updated shortlist.
## Nobel Committee Process
The Nobel Committee received 287 candidates this year comprising 208 individuals and 79 organizations with nomination records sealed for 50 years.
## Trump's Past Connection
Trump received indirect Nobel recognition last year when Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presented him with her Nobel medal during a White House meeting.
## Market Fluidity
Prediction markets show high fluidity with contracts trading at 15 cents representing approximately 15 percent market-implied probability.
## Key takeaway

Trump's Nobel Peace Prize bid faces 1% market odds while Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms lead at 15% on prediction markets.