# Nvidia Investors Ignore Default Risk Surge

> Nvidia equity investors overlook rising default risk as credit markets price 21% cumulative default probability.
- Title: Nvidia Investors Ignore Default Risk Surge · Seekingalpha
- Summary: Nvidia equity investors overlook rising default risk as credit markets price 21% cumulative default probability. Nvidia's equity price rose 12% despite…
- Keywords: nvidia, implied default risk, credit markets, equity investors, nvda, cumulative default probability, cds, money, business, Investors, Ignore, Default
- Source: Seekingalpha — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4956526-nvidia-equity-investors-are-ignoring-the-surge-in-implied-default-risk
- Author: Stuart Allsopp
- Published: 2026-10-22T17:25:45+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: nvidia, implied default risk, credit markets, equity investors, nvda, cumulative default probability, cds, money, business
## Credit markets price default risk
Equity markets ignore a sharp rise in Nvidia default risk as reflected by a 10-year CDS implying 21% cumulative default probability.
## Share price rises despite risk
NVDA's share price rose 12% while credit markets widened by 80 bps since July.
## Required return for equity position
To justify an equity position, NVDA must deliver at least a 6.7% annual return for 30 years.
## Key takeaway

Nvidia's equity price rose 12% despite credit markets indicating a 21% cumulative default risk over 10 years.