# October historically best for stocks in midterm years

> Since 1950, October has delivered positive returns 73.7% of the time in U.S. midterm election years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500.
- Title: October historically best for stocks in midterm years
- Summary: Since 1950, October has delivered positive returns 73.7% of the time in U.S. midterm election years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500. Historical data…
- Keywords: stock market, midterm elections, s&p 500, seasonal patterns, october, market performance, historically, best, stocks, midterm, years, Fortune
- Source: Fortune — https://fortune.com/2026/09/23/in-midterm-years-october-usually-best-month-for-stocks-gains-78-9-of-the-time
- Author: Sheryl Estrada
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: stock market, midterm elections, s&p 500, seasonal patterns, october, market performance
## October shines in midterm years
Since 1950, October has been the best-performing month in U.S. midterm election years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time.

> October has been the best-performing month of the year in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time.
## November follows closely behind
November ranks second in midterm years, averaging a 2.7% gain with positive returns 78.9% of the time, while September has averaged a 0.8% decline.
## UBS research confirms the pattern
UBS Global Research examined 19 midterm elections since 1950 and found S&P 500 returns averaged about 6% from September through year-end in midterm years, compared with about 4% in other years.
## Volatility peaks then normalizes
UBS strategist Maxwell Grinacoff noted that markets have been choppy from August-end until early October with a median decline of minus 1.4%, before rallying through year-end. Volatility normalizes after elections.

> The market has typically been choppy from August-end until early October, with a median decline of -1.4%, before the market starts to rally through year-end and into the next year.
## JPMorgan sees Q4 strength
J.P. Morgan Asset Management finds the S&P 500 has historically been slightly negative in the first three quarters of midterm years, before averaging a 6.6% gain in the fourth quarter.
## 2026's strong start complicates outlook
The S&P 500 was up approximately 13% year to date as of September 18, raising questions about whether the historical Q4 pattern holds after such strong gains, or if valuations and economic fundamentals will alter it.
## Key takeaway

Historical data shows October performs best for stocks in midterm election years, with positive returns 73.7% of the time since 1950, though 2026's strong year-to-date gains raise questions about whether the pattern will hold.