# Oil could spike past $100 on U.S.-Iran military risk

> Rapidan Energy's CEO puts an 80% chance on renewed U.S.-Iran fighting as the midterms end, potentially pushing crude well above current levels.
- Title: Oil could spike past $100 on U.S.-Iran military risk · CNBC
- Summary: Rapidan Energy's CEO puts an 80% chance on renewed U.S.-Iran fighting as the midterms end, potentially pushing crude well above current levels.
- Keywords: bob mcnally, rapidan energy group, iran, united states, oil prices, brent crude, west texas intermediate, military action, donald trump, jd vance, mohammad bagher ghalibaf, strait of hormuz
- Source: CNBC — https://cnbc.com/2026/11/06/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz-oil-midterms.html
- Author: Lim Hui Jie
- Published: 2026-11-06T04:46:15+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: bob mcnally, rapidan energy group, iran, united states, oil prices, brent crude, west texas intermediate, military action, donald trump, jd vance, mohammad bagher ghalibaf, strait of hormuz
## 80% chance of renewed fighting
Bob McNally, CEO of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC he sees an 80% chance of resumed U.S.-Iran military action as the midterm elections recede into the past.

> a resumption of military fighting
## Oil expected to breach $100
McNally predicts both Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures will rise above $100 a barrel. They currently trade at about $100 and $91 respectively.
## Trump's nuclear weapon priority
McNally said Trump is determined to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and having them give up their nuclear capabilities, almost at all costs as a legacy item.

> President Donald Trump is determined, as a legacy item, almost at all costs, to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon
## Iran refuses nuclear concessions
The Iranian regime is unwilling to give up nuclear capabilities, McNally said. This core difference in negotiating positions means the escalation dynamic remains in place.

> The Iranian regime, on the other hand, is not willing to do it.
## Lame duck window for strikes
Analysts at Lombard Odier said the period before the new Congress is sworn in could give Trump a window to resume strikes against Iran, though munitions supply constraints may limit duration.
## Iran proposes nuclear talks
Iran reportedly sent the U.S. a nuclear proposal through Qatar, but only after Washington meets seven demands including ending acts of aggression and the naval blockade of Iranian ports.
## Ghalibaf attacks Vance's midterm blame
Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf criticized U.S. Vice President JD Vance for blaming the Iran war for Republican midterm losses, calling it losing gambler energy.

> losing gambler energy
## War fuels inflation concerns
The conflict has contributed to higher global energy costs, feeding into broader concerns over inflation and cost of living that influenced voters in the midterm elections.
## Key takeaway

Rapidan Energy CEO Bob McNally forecasts an 80% chance of renewed U.S.-Iran military action after the midterms, predicting oil prices will rise above $100 a barrel.