# Oscar frontrunners emerge after fall festivals

> Venice, Telluride, and Toronto reveal which films are shaping up as best-picture contenders for the March 2025 Academy Awards.
- Title: Oscar frontrunners emerge after fall festivals · Vanity Fair
- Summary: Venice, Telluride, and Toronto reveal which films are shaping up as best-picture contenders for the March 2025 Academy Awards. La Bola Negra's People's…
- Keywords: oscars, best picture, venice film festival, telluride film festival, toronto international film festival, la bola negra, dune part three, the odyssey, wild horse nine, the debut, academy awards 2025, Oscar
- Source: Vanity Fair — https://vanityfair.com/story/oscar-best-picture-predictions-after-venice-telluride-and-toronto
- Author: Rebecca Ford
- Published: 2026-09-24T16:25:27.171+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: oscars, best picture, venice film festival, telluride film festival, toronto international film festival, la bola negra, dune part three, the odyssey, wild horse nine, the debut, academy awards 2025
## Fall festivals shape Oscar race
Venice, Telluride, and Toronto wrapped up, giving clearer signals about which films could win best picture at the March 14 Academy Awards. The three festivals are known for launching Oscar contenders.
## La Bola Negra wins Toronto's top prize
The Spanish-language Netflix drama won the People's Choice Award at Toronto, an honor with a strong track record of leading to best-picture nominations. Past winners include Nomadland, Green Book, and Jojo Rabbit.
## Seven films feel like locks now
Vanity Fair's Oscar experts agree on The Odyssey, Dune: Part Three, La Bola Negra, Project Hail Mary, The Debut, The Invite, and Wild Horse Nine as strong best-picture contenders at this early stage.
## Fjord's polarizing message divides
The Palme d'Or winner from Cannes about a Norwegian religious family faced mixed reactions at fall festivals. Its divisive themes could hurt its best-picture chances despite the prestigious award.
## New York Film Festival could shift race
Behemoth!, starring Pedro Pascal, and a documentary about Elizabeth Holmes by Nathan Fielder premiere at New York starting September 25. The documentary could make history as the first ever nominated for best picture.
## Predictions still wide open
The three Vanity Fair experts' picks overlap on seven films but diverge on the remaining three spots, showing how much uncertainty remains before the March 14 ceremony.
## Key takeaway

La Bola Negra's People's Choice Award win at Toronto, combined with strong showings across all three festivals, makes it the biggest early favorite alongside Dune: Part Three and The Odyssey.