# PoderData Poll Shows Flávio 52%, Lula 48%

> PoderData poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 4 points in Brazil's 2026 runoff election.
- Title: PoderData Poll Shows Flávio 52%, Lula 48% · The Rio Times
- Summary: PoderData poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 4 points in Brazil's 2026 runoff election. PoderData's latest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 52% of…
- Keywords: brazil, elections, flávio bolsonaro, lula, poderdata, runoff, polls, brazilian politics, news, world, politics, Poll
- Source: The Rio Times — https://riotimesonline.com/poderdata-poll-flavio-52-lula-48-runoff-2026
- Author: Lucía Martínez
- Published: 2026-10-19T13:39:44+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: brazil, elections, flávio bolsonaro, lula, poderdata, runoff, polls, brazilian politics, news, world, politics
## New PoderData Poll Published
PoderData, with partner Aya, published a new runoff survey on Monday 19 October 2026 showing Flávio ahead of Lula.
## Flávio Leads by 4 Points
Flávio Bolsonaro has 52% of valid votes and Lula has 48%, a 4-point gap with a margin of error of 1.8 points.
## Previous Poll Was Tied
The previous PoderData survey, published on Friday 16 October, had both candidates at 50% of valid votes.
## Fieldwork Details
PoderData interviewed 3,000 voters by telephone on 16, 17 and 18 October in 695 municipalities across 27 states.
## Margin of Error
The survey has a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points at 95% confidence and is registered with TSE as BR-02586/2026.
## Other Pollsters Show Tighter Race
AtlasIntel reported Flávio at 51.1% and Lula at 48.9% of valid votes from 4,998 interviews on 13 to 18 October.
## Prediction Markets
Polymarket gives Flávio a 76.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff with US$188 million in total bets.
## What This Means for Investors
The gap widening by 4 points in three days shows how quickly the picture can change for investors and trade partners.
## Why Prediction Markets Matter
Prediction markets turn real-money bets into live probabilities that move within minutes of new surveys.
## What Is Not Known
It is not known how many undecided voters will turn out or which way they will go on 25 October.
## Key takeaway

PoderData's latest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 52% of valid votes versus Lula's 48% in Brazil's presidential runoff.