# Polymarket Beats Wall Street on Earnings

> Online bettors outperform Wall Street analysts in earnings predictions by 35 points.
- Title: Polymarket Beats Wall Street on Earnings · 24/7 Wall St.
- Summary: Online bettors outperform Wall Street analysts in earnings predictions by 35 points. Polymarket bettors correctly predicted quarterly earnings 78.5% of the…
- Keywords: polymarket, wall street, earnings, analysts, prediction markets, quarterly results, consensus estimates, Beats, Wall, Street, 24/7 Wall St.
- Source: 24/7 Wall St. — https://247wallst.com/personal-finance/2026/09/21/polymarket-bettors-called-earnings-right-78-5-of-the-time-wall-street-analysts-managed-43-7
- Author: Jake FitzGerald
- Published: 2026-09-21T22:14:01+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: polymarket, wall street, earnings, analysts, prediction markets, quarterly results, consensus estimates
## Prediction Accuracy Gap
Polymarket bettors predicted earnings right 78.5% of the time.

> Polymarket bettors called quarterly earnings correctly 79% of the time
## Analyst Consensus
Wall Street analysts managed earnings predictions 43.7% of the time.

> Wall Street analyst consensus was right 44% of the time
## Study Source
Daniel Rabetti, Jiaqi Shao and Che Zhang conducted the research.

> Beating the Earnings Game, a study by Daniel Rabetti, Jiaqi Shao and Che Zhang
## Prediction Market Mechanics
Real money bets update continuously as earnings approach.

> Traders buy and sell contracts at any time before the report
## Analyst Incentives
Analysts face pressure to stay optimistic to preserve relationships.

> Sell-side analysts face pressure to stay optimistic to preserve access to company management
## Walk-Down Strategy
Companies lower expectations before earnings reports.

> Management sets an expectation early in the quarter, then steers analysts toward a number the company is confident it can clear
## Crowd Advantage
Diverse groups outperform analysts on company-specific factors.

> The crowd’s edge was largest for companies whose earnings are driven by company-specific factors
## What This Means
Focus on forward guidance, not consensus beats.

> What matters is the size of the beat, the quality of the revenue underneath it, and above all the forward guidance
## Key takeaway

Polymarket bettors correctly predicted quarterly earnings 78.5% of the time versus Wall Street analysts' 43.7% accuracy.