# Putin's hybrid war is escalating fast > Russia's deniable attacks on NATO territory have grown bolder and more frequent, but the alliance has failed to mount a collective response that might deter further escalation. - Title: Putin's hybrid war is escalating fast · Foreign Affairs - Summary: Russia's deniable attacks on NATO territory have grown bolder and more frequent, but the alliance has failed to mount a collective response that might deter… - Keywords: russia, nato, hybrid warfare, ukraine, putin, europe, article 5, cyberattacks, sabotage, deterrence, world, politics - Source: Foreign Affairs — https://foreignaffairs.com/russia/russias-hybrid-war-has-entered-dangerous-new-phase - Author: Julianne Smith - Published: 2026-10-07T08:00:00+00:00 - Read time: 4 min - Topics: russia, nato, hybrid warfare, ukraine, putin, europe, article 5, cyberattacks, sabotage, deterrence, world, politics ## Russia's attacks were once deniable For years, Russia cut undersea cables, hid incendiary devices in cargo, and attacked weapons factories across Europe. NATO reinforced infrastructure and increased patrols but took a largely defensive approach. ## Now the attacks are undeniable In late July, a Russian cruise missile crashed into Polish territory. Days later, explosive-laden drones were found at Leipzig airport in Germany. Romanian and Spanish jets intercepted Russian drones over their airspace. ## Putin's aims are clear These attacks are designed to fracture NATO's unity, test members' commitment to Article five, and raise the cost of supporting Ukraine. The speed of escalation from deniable to undeniable has been unexpected. ## NATO's response is insufficient NATO tracks incidents and sometimes intercepts attacks, but responding incident by incident is not deterrence. Putin knows each provocation costs Moscow nothing more than a downed drone, so he keeps escalating. ## Russia's hybrid tactics are old As early as the nineteen twenties, the Soviets used active measures: local proxies, front groups, and irregular forces to achieve political aims. Putin follows the same model, seeking to erode confidence in Article five. ## Russia changed strategy after Ukraine Since the two thousand twenty-two invasion of Ukraine, Russia has significantly increased attack frequency. During the first year of war, Russian incursions in Europe quadrupled, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. ## Russia diversified its tactics Beyond disinformation and cyberattacks, actors linked to Moscow have sabotaged railways, placed incendiary packages on cargo planes, and paid criminal networks inside Europe to burn down weapons depots. ## NATO discussed but didn't act By early two thousand twenty-three, NATO stepped up discussions on Russian hybrid activity. The two thousand twenty-three NATO summit communiqué stated Russia had intensified attacks and mentioned use of proxies for the first time. ## NATO created new initiatives NATO established the Maritime Centre for the Security of Critical Undersea Infrastructure and the Virtual Cyber Incident Support Capability. But the alliance did not discuss imposing costs on Russia through sanctions or offensive operations. ## NATO's structure limits response NATO was designed in nineteen forty-nine for collective defense against attributable armed attacks. It lacks authority to impose sanctions or expel Russian operatives. That power sits with individual member states and the European Union. ## Trump's focus derailed hybrid response When President Donald Trump returned to the White House in two thousand twenty-five, he prioritized NATO defense spending. ## Hybrid warfare strategy disappeared Despite an agreement among allies in two thousand twenty-four to deliver a new Russia strategy at the two thousand twenty-five summit at The Hague, it never materialized. ## Putin escalated in summer two thousand twenty-five By September two thousand twenty-five, Putin no longer seemed to care about plausible deniability. Around twenty Russian drones entered Polish airspace, and three Russian fighter jets crossed into Estonian airspace before being shot down. ## Attacks intensified through two thousand twenty-five In December, Russian-backed hackers deployed wiper malware against thirty energy facilities in Poland. In May, a Russian drone struck a residential apartment building in Romania, the first time such an attack had injured civilians. ## Summer attacks grew more audacious In August, groups almost certainly linked to Russia launched arson attacks in Bulgaria, Estonia, Italy, and Poland. One drone found near a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig airport in early August was carrying explosives. ## Trump sent conflicting signals After the September two thousand twenty-five drone incursion into Poland, Trump said it could have been a mistake, which the Polish government adamantly disputed. Trump also said Putin is not looking to attack NATO territory. > could have been a mistake ## The US must signal resolve The United States should treat Russian hybrid warfare as forcefully as it did Russia's threat to use tactical nuclear weapons in fall two thousand twenty-two, when Washington issued a direct public warning about catastrophic consequences. ## NATO must make costs tangible Norway seized a Russian vessel in Svalbard in September as punishment for Moscow's refusal to pay damages. France has repeatedly boarded Russian sanctioned tankers. NATO allies should look for more such steps to impose costs. ## Allies must increase Ukraine support Every Russian hybrid attack should drive allies to increase support for Ukraine. Since two thousand twenty-two, Putin has used every tool to stop assistance to Kyiv. Returning to this shared project will demonstrate NATO's resolve. ## Key takeaway Russia has dramatically escalated hybrid attacks on NATO members since 2022, but the alliance's case-by-case response has failed to deter Putin, risking catastrophic loss of life.