# Renaissance Capital Raises Dangote Refinery Valuation

> Renaissance Capital boosts Dangote Refinery share price by 33.4% to ₦700 after strong earnings.
- Title: Renaissance Capital Raises Dangote Refinery Valuation
- Summary: Renaissance Capital boosts Dangote Refinery share price by 33.4% to ₦700 after strong earnings. Renaissance Capital raised Dangote Refinery valuation by…
- Keywords: renaissance capital, dangote refinery, naira, share price, refinery, earnings, 2026, investment bank, valuation, news, politics, Renaissance
- Source: Premium Times Nigeria — https://premiumtimesng.com/business/business-news/918297-renaissance-capital-raises-dangote-refinery-valuation-by-33-4-to-%e2%82%a6700-per-share.html
- Author: Abdulkareem Mojeed
- Published: 2026-10-19T16:39:02+00:00
- Read time: 2 min
- Topics: renaissance capital, dangote refinery, naira, share price, refinery, earnings, 2026, investment bank, valuation, news, politics
## Renaissance Capital Update
Renaissance Capital Africa raised Dangote Petroleum Refinery valuation by 33.4% to ₦700.41 per share from ₦525 IPO price.
## Strong Earnings Performance
Refinery exceeded expectations with revenue, EBITDA and net profit growth in first nine months of 2026.
## Financial Highlights
Revenue grew 144% to $9.2 billion, EBITDA increased nine-fold to $5.5 billion, operating cash flow rose ten-fold to $3.68 billion.
## Debt to Cash Shift
Net debt reduced from $1.73 billion in September 2025 to net cash position of $651 million in first nine months of 2026.
## Analyst Concerns
Some analysts question if ₦525 share price is too high given expansion plans and margin sustainability.
## Razaq Fatai's Warning
Razaq Fatai warns higher valuation risks false hope for retail investors and may overstate future cash flows.
## Capacity Expansion Plan
Refinery plans to double capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2029, estimated at $14 billion cost.
## Geopolitical Margin Impact
US-Iran conflict created unusually high refining margins but may not be sustainable long-term.
## Margin Projections
Renaissance Capital expects gross refining margins to rise to $27.50 per barrel in 2026 from $24 per barrel.
## Investor Advice
Investors should test valuation against scenarios: normal margins, expansion delays, weaker naira.
## Competing Valuations
GTI Capital reports fair value at ₦493 per share, describing current offer price as fully valued.
## DCF Valuation Concerns
Razaq Fatai notes delays in expansion could erode value and impact valuation accuracy.
## Refinery Performance
Refinery recorded $4.7 billion net profit in first nine months of 2026 vs $117.2 million loss in same period of 2025.
## Investor Caution
Razaq Fatai advises against relying on headline fair-value estimates based on optimistic assumptions.
## What Happens Next
Investors should compare Renaissance Capital with independent valuations before making decisions.
## Key takeaway

Renaissance Capital raised Dangote Refinery valuation by 33.4% to ₦700 per share following strong first nine months 2026 performance.