# Retailers expect big holiday spending despite rising prices

> U.S. holiday sales projected at $1.013 trillion as inflation pressures mount.
- Title: Retailers expect big holiday spending despite rising prices
- Summary: U.S. holiday sales projected at $1.013 trillion as inflation pressures mount. Retailers forecast $1.013 trillion in holiday sales but rising prices could…
- Keywords: consumer spending, retail sales, inflation, federal reserve, interest rates, holiday spending, national retail federation, producer prices, news, politics, world, Retailers
- Source: Straight Arrow — https://san.com/cc/retailers-expect-big-spending-for-holidays-rising-prices-could-dampen-consumers-spirits
- Published: 2026-10-15T19:51:45+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: consumer spending, retail sales, inflation, federal reserve, interest rates, holiday spending, national retail federation, producer prices, news, politics, world
## Holiday sales forecast
U.S. retail sales projected to climb 4.2% from last year, reaching $1.013 trillion this holiday season.
## Inflation concerns
Rising prices threaten to dampen consumer spending despite strong holiday sales projections.
## Retail federation president
Matthew Shay called shoppers 'unsung heroes of our economy' during strong consumer spending.
## Inflation impact
Higher diesel prices increase shipping costs across sectors for retailers.
## K shape economy
Mark Mathews described a K shape economy where lower-income households face disproportionate spending cuts.
## Rising producer prices
U.S. producer prices jumped 1.3% in September, up 6.3% from a year earlier.
## Energy price surge
Wholesale gasoline prices surged 20.3% in September, driving inflation higher.
## Consumer price rise
Consumer prices climbed 0.6% in September, pushing annual inflation to 3.7%.
## Fed rate hike odds
Probability of October Fed rate hike increased from 17% to 28% in a week.
## Economist warning
Mark Zandi warned inflation could become more entrenched before year-end.
## Core retail sales
The National Retail Federation excludes automobile dealers and restaurants from holiday sales forecasts.
## K shape impact
Rising financial wealth supports high-income households while lower-income groups face spending cuts.
## Inflation spread
Price pressures spreading beyond gas pumps to transportation and warehousing costs.
## PPI report
PPI shows price pressures spreading to final-demand services and transportation sectors.
## Fed rate decision
Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again before year-end despite election timing.
## Holiday spending outlook
Rising prices could dampen consumers' spirits despite strong holiday sales projections.
## Key takeaway

Retailers forecast $1.013 trillion in holiday sales but rising prices could reduce consumer spending power.