# Rice exports may drop next year due to lower surplus

> USDA forecasts 4% drop in India's rice exports to 24 million tonnes for 2027 as El Niño slashes production.
- Title: Rice exports may drop next year due to lower surplus
- Summary: USDA forecasts 4% drop in India's rice exports to 24 million tonnes for 2027 as El Niño slashes production. India's rice exports are projected to fall 4% to…
- Keywords: india, rice exports, usda, el niño, 2027, 24 million tonnes, paddy area, business, money, news, Rice, exports
- Source: Financialexpress — https://financialexpress.com/policy/economy/rice-exports-may-take-a-hit-next-year-on-lower-surplus/4358701
- Author: Sandip Das
- Published: 2026-10-11T13:27:16+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: india, rice exports, usda, el niño, 2027, 24 million tonnes, paddy area, business, money, news
## USDA reports rice export drop
USDA forecasts a 4% drop in India's rice exports to 24 million tonnes for 2027 due to El Niño weather slashing production.
## El Niño causes production decline
A strong El Niño weather pattern is expected to drop India's rice production by 4.5% to 147 million tonnes in the current crop year.
## Paddy area shrinks by 3.7%
Area under paddy has declined by 3.7% to 42.92 million hectares in the current kharif season.
## Domestic rice prices rise
Retail prices of rice increased to Rs 46.92/kg, a 10% increase over the previous year.
## Government stock to curb prices
The government holds over 38 million tonnes of rice stock against a buffer requirement of 10.25 million tonnes for October 1.
## Premium rice prices rise sharply
Prices of premium non-basmati rice variants increased by 10-25% compared to last year due to lower paddy area and rainfall deficiency.
## Key takeaway

India's rice exports are projected to fall 4% to 24 million tonnes in 2027 due to El Niño weather reducing production by 4.5%.