# Senator's prediction market flip: from ban to lobby > Blanche Lincoln wrote the law to ban sports betting on prediction markets in 2010. Now she lobbies for Kalshi to allow exactly that. - Title: Senator's prediction market flip: from ban to lobby | Shortify - Summary: Blanche Lincoln wrote the law to ban sports betting on prediction markets in 2010. Now she lobbies for Kalshi to allow exactly that. Former senator Blanche… - Keywords: blanche lincoln, kalshi, prediction markets, dodd-frank act, cftc, sports gambling, event contracts, state regulation, trump administration, lobbying, technology, science - Source: Ars Technica — https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/10/a-senator-tried-to-ban-gambling-on-prediction-markets-now-shes-a-kalshi-lobbyist - Published: 2026-10-08T11:00:14+00:00 - Read time: 4 min - Topics: blanche lincoln, kalshi, prediction markets, dodd-frank act, cftc, sports gambling, event contracts, state regulation, trump administration, lobbying, technology, science ## Lincoln warns of sports betting loophole In July twenty ten, Senator Blanche Lincoln predicted prediction markets could evade gambling laws through event contracts on sports. She warned the Super Bowl, Kentucky Derby, and Masters golf could become betting venues. > It would be quite easy to construct an event contract around sporting events such as the Super Bowl, the Kentucky Derby, and Masters golf tournament. ## Lincoln authors the law to stop it Lincoln, chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee, wrote Title VII of the Dodd-Frank Act to give the CFTC authority to ban sports gambling on prediction markets. Congress signed the law in July twenty ten. ## Lincoln's intent: CFTC should prohibit sports bets Lincoln told fellow senators the CFTC needed authority to prohibit event contracts that exist primarily to enable gambling. She said these contracts would serve no real commercial purpose and be used solely for gambling. > These types of contracts would not serve any real commercial purpose. Rather, they would be used solely for gambling. ## Lincoln leaves Senate, founds lobbying firm Lincoln lost her Senate seat in January twenty eleven after a landslide election loss to Republican John Boozman. She founded the Lincoln Policy Group, a lobbying firm, and later took Kalshi as a client. ## Now Lincoln lobbies for Kalshi Lincoln's firm has received four hundred eighty thousand dollars from Kalshi since twenty twenty-four in exchange for lobbying Congress and the CFTC for looser regulation of event contracts on sports. ## Biden CFTC enforces the sports betting ban The Biden administration discouraged sports-event contracts and proposed expanding the ban on gaming contracts to include elections and entertainment awards. Lincoln opposed this expansion in an August twenty twenty-four letter. ## Lincoln's August twenty twenty-four position In her letter to the Biden CFTC, Lincoln said sports results do not have significant economic consequences and are unsuitable for event contracts. This matched her twenty ten position against sports gambling. ## Kalshi launches sports betting under Trump Kalshi launched sports betting on January twenty-third, twenty twenty-five, three days after Trump's second inauguration. The Trump CFTC allowed sports-event contracts to flourish nationwide, even in states that restrict gambling. > The Golden Age of markets is here. ## Lincoln reverses her position on sports bets After Kalshi started offering sports gambling, Lincoln told the CFTC it should allow the same sports-event contracts she said as a senator would serve no commercial purpose and be used only for gambling. ## Lincoln argues sports have commercial value As a Kalshi lobbyist, Lincoln now argues sports events have strong commercial value because they impact advertising, apparel sales, and the hospitality industry. She urged the CFTC to let markets determine contract value. ## Trump Jr. advises prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket both have Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor. One of Polymarket's largest investors is one thousand seven hundred eighty-nine Capital, a venture capital firm in which Trump Jr. is a partner. ## States sue to enforce gambling laws About twenty states have sued to enforce their gambling laws against prediction markets. New York, Kentucky, and others argue Kalshi and Polymarket run illegal gambling operations that evade taxes and harm minors. ## Federal courts split on whether sports bets are swaps The Ninth Circuit ruled Nevada can stop Kalshi from allowing sports bets. The Sixth Circuit said Ohio and Tennessee can enforce gambling laws. The Third Circuit ruled New Jersey cannot regulate prediction markets. ## Ninth Circuit: sports bets are gambling, not swaps Three Trump-appointed judges unanimously ruled that sports-event contracts do not meet the legal definition of swaps. Judge Ryan Nelson wrote that placing sports bets, even when called by another name, is still gambling. > Placing sports bets, even when called by another name, is still gambling. ## Sixth Circuit: states can regulate prediction markets The Sixth Circuit ruled that even if sports-event contracts are swaps, states can regulate them under traditional gambling authority. Federal law has historically deferred to states on gambling, the court said. ## Lincoln's twenty ten comments cited in court US District Judge Analisa Torres quoted Lincoln's twenty ten comments as proof Congress sought to prohibit the exact types of event contracts Kalshi seeks to offer. Lincoln's statements remain central to the legal fight. > Congress sought to prohibit the exact types of event contracts that Kalshi seeks to offer. ## Supreme Court likely to decide the issue Circuit courts have reached conflicting decisions on whether states can regulate prediction markets. New Jersey petitioned the Supreme Court to resolve the split. Thirty-nine states and DC filed a brief urging the court to uphold state authority. ## Lincoln urges Trump CFTC to block state laws In July twenty twenty-five, Lincoln filed comments urging the Trump CFTC to take a hard stand against state regulation of prediction markets. She said states seeking to regulate prediction markets threaten the federal system. > This is why it is crucial that the CFTC make clear that all prediction markets fall entirely under its domain with no interference by states. ## Prediction market industry spending surges Kalshi, Polymarket, and the Coalition for Prediction Markets spent at least three million dollars on lobbying and campaign contributions across federal and state levels in twenty twenty-six, according to OpenSecrets. ## Key takeaway Former senator Blanche Lincoln, who authored rules to ban sports gambling on prediction markets in twenty ten, now lobbies for Kalshi to allow it, earning four hundred eighty thousand dollars since twenty twenty-four.