# Seven months in, the Iran war has no exit > A war Trump said would take five weeks is strangling two of the world's busiest shipping lanes, and neither side will blink. - Title: Seven months in, the Iran war has no exit · TIME | Shortify - Summary: A war Trump said would take five weeks is strangling two of the world's busiest shipping lanes, and neither side will blink. Iran doesn't need to win the… - Keywords: iran, oil, shipping, trump, middle east, Seven, months, war, exit, TIME - Source: TIME — https://time.com/article/2026/09/15/us-iran-peace-talks-deal-stalled-houthis-leverage-shipping-disruptions - Author: Tiago Ventura - Published: 2026-09-15T19:58:15.216+00:00 - Read time: 3 min - Topics: iran, oil, shipping, trump, middle east ## Five weeks became seven months Trump predicted the Iran war would last four to five weeks. It started Feb. 28 and is still running, with no timeline for an end. ## Tankers under fire again Fighting restarted this month around the Strait of Hormuz, with oil tankers hit. Iran wants a chokehold on the route while the U.S. blockades its ports. ## A fifth of the world's oil Roughly 20% of global oil production moved through Hormuz before the war. The strait is now a military stalemate and traffic has collapsed. ## Ten ships instead of 138 Kpler data shared with TIME shows only 10 vessels crossed Hormuz on Monday. Before the war, a typical 24 hours saw 138. > oil is flowing ## Oil back above $100 Prices topped $100 a barrel last week for the first time since July. Energy markets are spiraling as the disruption drags on. ## The Houthis take Perim Island Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis captured the strategic island in the Bab el-Mandeb last week, breaking a four-year informal cease-fire with the Saudi-backed government. ## The backup route is closing Bab el-Mandeb links Asia and Europe via the Red Sea and Suez. It absorbed the Hormuz overflow, with crude transit rising from 5.6 to 8.1 million barrels a day. > the alternate Red Sea has been a very important release valve for the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz ## Iran's new card The Houthis say they'll spare all shipping except Saudi tankers. Experts told TIME the mere threat hands Tehran leverage in any future talks. > the Iranians now have a new card they can use, and they haven't totally used [it] yet, but they will ## Talks keep slipping Gulf states, home to U.S. bases hit by Iranian strikes, postponed a Monday meeting with Tehran on reopening Hormuz. Negotiations remain stalled. ## Trump says he's open On Monday he said the U.S. is open to restarting talks, claiming Iran wants a deal "quickly and badly." The last official session was in Switzerland in June. > I will determine whether or not the U.S.A. will choose to engage ## Two weeks earlier, the opposite On Sept. 2 he said he wasn't trying to force Iran to the table and preferred the current position. On Sept. 9 he predicted the war ends right after the November midterms. > I couldn't care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement. ## Maximalism kills the deal Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group says wanting a deal isn't the same as getting one. The approach decides it. > If it's maximalist, then it doesn't stand a chance of succeeding ## Iran's answer: conditions first Security council secretary Mohsen Rezaei told Tehran to ignore Trump's mixed signals. Iran has six unmet demands before Hormuz fully reopens. > No talks until Iran's conditions are met. Period! ## The June pact that collapsed President Pezeshkian offered to reciprocate if Washington returned to the June 17 memorandum. That interim deal fell apart over clashing readings of its language. ## Tehran can wait Chatham House's Farea Al-Muslimi says Iran is negotiating to stall while energy prices climb. No elected parliament means no pressure to stop. > They can wait. They can afford it… they are not allergic to pain. ## Americans pay the bill Diesel hit a record $6 a gallon. The CBO puts the war's cost at about $38 billion plus added inflation, and 68% of Americans rate Trump's handling negatively. ## Key takeaway Iran doesn't need to win the war, it just needs to outlast a country where voters feel $6 diesel and Tehran's voters don't get a say.