# Social Security's 2027 raise is shaping up bigger

> Fresh inflation data points to the largest Social Security bump in three years, and the official number lands in October.
- Title: Social Security's 2027 raise is shaping up bigger · CNBC
- Summary: Fresh inflation data points to the largest Social Security bump in three years, and the official number lands in October. Expect roughly a 3.5% raise for…
- Keywords: social security, inflation, retirement, cola, benefits, business, finance, Social, Security's, 2027, raise, shaping
- Source: CNBC — https://cnbc.com/2026/09/11/social-security-cola-2027-estimate.html
- Author: Lorie Konish
- Published: 2026-09-11T16:05:56+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: social security, inflation, retirement, cola, benefits, business, finance
## A bigger raise is coming
New estimates put the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment at 3.5% to 3.6%. That would be the largest annual bump in three years.
## Last year set the bar
About 75 million Social Security and SSI recipients got a 2.8% increase for 2026. Anything near 3.5% clears that comfortably.
## Oil prices are the wild card
Analyst Mary Johnson now pegs the COLA at 3.5%, up from her 3.4% call in August. She says volatile oil prices since the Iran war could still swing it.
## What it means per check
The Senior Citizens League figures 3.5% adds $67.90 to the average monthly check. AARP's 3.6% forecast works out to about $75 more for the average retired worker.
## How the number is built
The COLA compares third-quarter CPI-W, a wage-earner subset of the consumer price index, year over year. CPI-W rose 3.5% in the 12 months through August.
## October makes it official
One more month of inflation data goes into the calculation before the Social Security Administration announces the 2027 figure, as it usually does in October.
## Key takeaway

Expect roughly a 3.5% raise for 2027, worth about $68 to $75 more a month, but the final figure is not set until October.