# S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outperform Tough September

> Stocks weathered September's volatility as inflation data and election season boost Q4 prospects.
- Title: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outperform Tough September · Kiplinger
- Summary: Stocks weathered September's volatility as inflation data and election season boost Q4 prospects. S&P 500 and Nasdaq outperformed historically tough…
- Keywords: s&p 500, nasdaq, fed, inflation, stock market, september, election, semiconductor, moderna, chip stocks, jobs report, 500
- Source: Kiplinger — https://kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/s-and-p-500-nasdaq-outperform-in-historically-tough-september-stock-market-today
- Published: 2026-09-30T20:15:37+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: s&p 500, nasdaq, fed, inflation, stock market, september, q4, election, semiconductor, moderna, chip stocks, jobs report
## Inflation data releases
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.2% month over month and 3.4% year over year.
## Core PCE inflation
Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% month over month and 3.0% year over year.
## Economist analysis
Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group, says PCE inflation remains hot despite methodological revisions.

> Even after major methodological revisions, PCE inflation is still running hot however you cut it
## Q4 economic outlook
Varghese notes the economy is running hot with policy easy, creating a tailwind for stocks through Q4.

> The economy is running hot, policy remains easy, and the Fed's challenge is figuring out how much restraint is needed
## September market performance
The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 7,651, ending September down 0.2% against historical average of 1.1% loss.
## Election season tailwind
Mark Hackett says the month before and five following midterms offer best six-month stretch with 14% average gain.

> The month before and the five following the midterm election being the best six-month stretch on the four-year election calendar, averaging a 14% gain during midterm years
## September jobs report
Wall Street expects 84,000 new jobs in September, down from August's 162,000 but still healthy.
## ADP payroll data
ADP reported private payrolls rose 90,000 in September, exceeding economists' forecast of 68,000.
## Moderna stock drop
Moderna shares fell 5.4% after Citi downgraded the stock to Sell following its 'outsized run'.

> Moderna shares slumped 5.4% after Citi slapped the red-hot drugmaker with a new Sell rating
## Key takeaway

S&P 500 and Nasdaq outperformed historically tough September despite Fed rate hike concerns.