# Super-sized El Niño heat deaths forecast

> New study warns 451,000 heat deaths possible by February from super-sized El Niño.
- Title: Super-sized El Niño heat deaths forecast · ABC7 New York
- Summary: New study warns 451,000 heat deaths possible by February from super-sized El Niño. A Climate Impact Lab study projects 451,000 heat deaths globally by…
- Keywords: el niño, climate impact lab, heat deaths, nigeria, indonesia, sudan, india, brazil, united states, global south, extreme heat, climate change
- Source: ABC7 New York — https://abc7ny.com/story/super-sized-el-nio-could-cause-more-450000-heat-deaths-february-study-suggests/19867587
- Published: 2026-09-24T22:12:00+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: el niño, climate impact lab, heat deaths, nigeria, indonesia, sudan, india, brazil, united states, global south, extreme heat, climate change
## Super-sized El Niño heat deaths forecast
A Climate Impact Lab study projects 451,000 heat deaths globally by February 2027 due to super-sized El Niño.
## El Niño's record strength
El Niño, a natural climate pattern which typically ramps up global temperature, has now crossed into super-sized territory and is on its way to becoming record-breakingly strong.
## Heat deaths impact
The report estimates the heat from El Niño could take 451,000 lives between June 2026 and February 2027, in addition to usual heat-related deaths.
## Global South at highest risk
Nigeria faces 31,400 projected heat deaths, with Indonesia, Sudan, India, Brazil and the United States also among the top 20 affected countries.
## Climate change connection
Scientists project El Niño will push global land temperatures up 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal, matching climate change projections for 20 years from now.
## Report author perspective
Michael Greenstone, a report author, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, said the 451,000 death estimate is made up of parents, children, grandparents, neighbors, and people going to work.
## Policymakers urged to act
The Climate Impact Lab released the shorter report first due to El Niño's rapid strengthening, urging immediate action to prevent heat deaths before peer review completes.
## Key takeaway

A Climate Impact Lab study projects 451,000 heat deaths globally by February 2027 due to super-sized El Niño, with Nigeria facing 31,400 fatalities.