# Tariffs drove all inflation on everyday goods, NY Fed finds

> A New York Federal Reserve study shows Trump's tariffs were entirely responsible for price rises on consumer goods in 2025 and early 2026.
- Title: Tariffs drove all inflation on everyday goods, NY Fed finds
- Summary: A New York Federal Reserve study shows Trump's tariffs were entirely responsible for price rises on consumer goods in 2025 and early 2026. The New York…
- Keywords: donald trump, tariffs, new york federal reserve, inflation, consumer prices, 2025 tariffs, business, finance, drove, all, everyday, goods
- Source: CNBC — https://cnbc.com/2026/10/08/inflation-tariffs-trump-fed-consumer-goods.html
- Author: Alex Harring
- Published: 2026-10-08T12:05:16+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: donald trump, tariffs, new york federal reserve, inflation, consumer prices, 2025 tariffs, business, finance
## Tariffs caused all the inflation
The New York Federal Reserve found that prices on 67 types of everyday goods were two point nine percentage points higher as of February due to tariffs imposed in 2025 and early 2026.
## Prices would have fallen instead
Without the tariffs, the New York Fed team found that prices for the products they studied would have pulled back by almost one percent during that period.
## Tariff impact spreads beyond direct costs
Roughly two-thirds of the tariff-related price impact came directly from the levies themselves. The remaining increase was driven by knock-on effects, such as U.S.-based companies using imported parts and materials.

> Tariffs have a larger and more drawn-out impact on consumer prices than the direct effect alone would suggest.
## Trump's prediction did not hold
President Donald Trump argued that companies could absorb tariff costs rather than pass them to shoppers. The New York Fed team found that around twenty-six percent of last year's tariff increases ended up as higher prices.
## Elevated prices expected into 2027
Annual price growth in the goods tracked peaked at the start of 2026. Consumers are still expected to pay elevated prices into 2027 as a result of the tariff policy.
## Key takeaway

The New York Federal Reserve found that tariffs imposed in 2025 and early 2026 caused all inflation on 67 types of everyday goods, with prices falling without them.