# Tesla's $840 target hinges on robotaxis and trucks

> A Morgan Stanley analyst raised Tesla's bull-case price target, but the real story is about recurring revenue from autonomous vehicles and Semi trucks.
- Title: Tesla's $840 target hinges on robotaxis and trucks | Shortify
- Summary: A Morgan Stanley analyst raised Tesla's bull-case price target, but the real story is about recurring revenue from autonomous vehicles and Semi trucks…
- Keywords: tesla, morgan stanley, stock price target, robotaxis, cybercab, optimus robots, tesla semi, full self-driving, autonomous vehicles, recurring revenue, business, finance
- Source: Yahoo Finance — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/one-wall-street-analyst-just-101000459.html
- Published: 2026-09-16T10:10:00+00:00
- Read time: 2 min
- Topics: tesla, morgan stanley, stock price target, robotaxis, cybercab, optimus robots, tesla semi, full self-driving, autonomous vehicles, recurring revenue, business, finance
## Morgan Stanley raises Tesla bull case
Andrew Percoco lifted his bull-case target from $820 to $840 while keeping an equal-weight rating and $400 base case. Tesla shares trade around $357.
## Tesla's real value is in services
Tesla's future depends on high-margin recurring revenue from robotaxis, Optimus robots, and full self-driving software, not just hardware sales. At 200 times 2026 earnings, the stock only makes sense if you believe in these businesses.
## Robotaxis could drive recurring revenue
Tesla plans to earn recurring fare revenue from its Cybercab robotaxis and full self-driving software. The robot-as-a-service model for Optimus robots will generate long-term software revenue.
## Tesla Semi trucks offer huge upside
Morgan Stanley projects over 80,000 autonomous Semi trucks by 2040, each generating up to $18,000 monthly in full self-driving revenue. That could mean $17 billion in high-margin FSD revenue by 2040.

> more than 80,000 autonomous Semi trucks on the road by 2040, each generating as much as $18,000 a month
## Semi production ramping up fast
Wall Street expects Tesla Semi units to jump from 4,000 in 2027 to 12,000 in 2028. A successful PepsiCo pilot demonstrated the Semi's lower cost per mile versus diesel trucks.
## Musk prioritizes passenger car FSD first
Elon Musk said Semi full self-driving development is taking a backseat for six months while Tesla focuses on Model 3, Model Y, and Cybercab FSD. But he expects Semi FSD to work next year ahead of production scale-up.

> it will definitely be working next year and in time for the scale-up to high production of the Tesla Semi
## Regulatory hurdles remain significant
Tesla must overcome regulatory approval for passenger-car full self-driving before tackling Semi trucks. Adoption rates and actual usage patterns remain uncertain, and Morgan Stanley maintains an equal-weight rating.
## Semi is a long-term growth play
The Tesla Semi won't drive near-term earnings but could become a significant recurring revenue source if full self-driving develops as planned. Success depends on both regulatory approval and strong adoption.
## Key takeaway

Tesla's long-term value depends on building profitable recurring revenue from robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomous Semi trucks, not just selling cars.