# Texas 2026: Talarico edges Paxton, Abbott leads Hinojosa

> A new poll shows the Texas Senate race is too close to call, while the governor's race favors the Republican incumbent.
- Title: Texas 2026: Talarico edges Paxton, Abbott leads Hinojosa
- Summary: A new poll shows the Texas Senate race is too close to call, while the governor's race favors the Republican incumbent. Democrat James Talarico has a narrow…
- Keywords: texas, 2026 election, james talarico, ken paxton, greg abbott, gina hinojosa, senate race, governor race, polling, hispanic voters, economy, immigration
- Source: NBC News — https://nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/texas-poll-james-talarico-holds-narrow-advantage-senate-greg-abbott-le-rcna598432
- Author: Natasha Korecki
- Published: 2026-09-21T10:00:40+00:00
- Read time: 2 min
- Topics: texas, 2026 election, james talarico, ken paxton, greg abbott, gina hinojosa, senate race, governor race, polling, hispanic voters, economy, immigration
## Talarico edges Paxton in tight Senate race
Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 46% to 43%, but the margin falls within the poll's 4-point error range. Eight percent of voters remain undecided.
## Abbott leads Hinojosa for governor
Gov. Greg Abbott takes 48% to Democrat Gina Hinojosa's 41% in the gubernatorial race, a wider edge that remains technically within the margin of error.
## Latino voters swing back left
Talarico leads with Latino voters 54% to 36%, while Hinojosa leads 52% to 39%. This marks a shift from 2024, when Trump won 55% of Hispanic votes in Texas.
## Hinojosa needs 64% of Latino vote
To win statewide, Hinojosa indicated she needs 64% of the Latino vote, the benchmark Beto O'Rourke achieved in 2018 when he came closest to flipping Texas. Hispanic voters make up about a third of the state's electorate.

> When I get 64% of the Latino vote in 2026, I win.
## Economy and immigration drive voters
Among all voters, the economy and jobs rank highest at 24%, followed by inflation and cost of living at 23%. For Hispanic voters, inflation tops concerns at 33%, with immigration second at 23%.
## Social issues rank low in voter priorities
Abortion and trans rights rank at just 6% importance among all voters and 4% among Hispanic voters, despite Republican super PACs spending millions on ads targeting Talarico over trans issues.
## Sharp racial divide on ICE cooperation
White voters favor police cooperation with ICE on traffic stops 62% to 32%, while Black voters oppose it 66% to 24%. Hispanic voters are nearly split at 45% support and 48% opposition.
## Texans oppose school voucher program
Sixty-three percent of voters oppose using state tax dollars for private school tuition, while 30% support it. The voucher program has been controversial in Texas.
## Key takeaway

Democrat James Talarico has a narrow lead over Ken Paxton in the Senate race, but it's within the margin of error, while Greg Abbott holds a wider advantage in the governor's race.