# The 10-year is near 5%, and the reason matters

> Yields are a whisker from a level markets have not seen since 2023, and how they get there decides whether stocks flinch.
- Title: The 10-year is near 5%, and the reason matters · CNBC
- Summary: Yields are a whisker from a level markets have not seen since 2023, and how they get there decides whether stocks flinch. A 5% 10-year yield is not the…
- Keywords: treasuries, bond yields, inflation, federal deficit, markets, business, finance, 10-year, near, reason, matters, CNBC
- Source: CNBC — https://cnbc.com/2026/09/14/10-year-us-treasury-is-closing-in-on-5percent.html
- Author: Lee Ying Shan
- Published: 2026-09-14T01:39:13+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: treasuries, bond yields, inflation, federal deficit, markets, business, finance
## Back to the 5% line
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield sits around 4.96%, a whisker from a level it last touched in October 2023. What pushes it over the line is the real question.

> For investors, the biggest issue may be what drives it across the line.
## Too much paper, too few buyers
Albion's Jason Ware points to a supply-demand imbalance, with heavy Treasury and corporate issuance chasing the same pool of investor money. He does not expect markets to break above 5%.
## Growth makes high yields fine
If yields climb on a resilient economy and steady core inflation, stocks can handle it. Ware says a consumer spending slowdown or an AI capex pullback would hurt far more than an arbitrary threshold.
## The rally is rate-proof for now
Marsh Investments CIO Niall O'Sullivan notes the companies leading the equity rally are not especially rate-sensitive, and their heavy capital spending is itself propping up growth.
## When 5% starts to bite
Big deficits, heavy issuance and sticky inflation are lifting the term premium as investors demand more compensation. Oil back above $100 a barrel adds another price shock. Bessent's expanded buybacks may not be enough.

> fails to address the prevailing fundamental drivers of the upward pressure on 10- and 30-year yields
## The leverage nobody sees
Gibraltar Capital's George Awad flags huge hedge-fund leverage behind the market, including the cash-futures basis trade. A jump in funding costs or margin calls could force everyone to unwind at once.
## Key takeaway

A 5% 10-year yield is not the danger by itself. Growth-driven yields are survivable, but inflation, deficits or a forced unwind of leveraged Treasury bets are not.