# The admiral preventing war with China > Samuel Paparo commands U.S. Pacific forces tasked with deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan while fighting a war in Iran. - Title: The admiral preventing war with China · TIME | Shortify - Summary: Samuel Paparo commands U.S. Pacific forces tasked with deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan while fighting a war in Iran. Admiral Paparo's strategy is to… - Keywords: samuel paparo, u.s. pacific command, china, taiwan, deterrence strategy, military buildup, xi jinping, amphibious invasion, drone warfare, iran war, pete hegseth, military readiness - Source: TIME — https://time.com/article/2026/09/24/admiral-paparo-war-china-taiwan - Author: Richard Hall - Published: 2026-09-24T12:00:04+00:00 - Read time: 5 min - Topics: samuel paparo, u.s. pacific command, china, taiwan, deterrence strategy, military buildup, xi jinping, amphibious invasion, drone warfare, iran war, pete hegseth, military readiness ## The admiral who chose Iceman Samuel Paparo watched Top Gun as a college student in 1986 and identified with Iceman, the disciplined rival, not Maverick. He joined the Navy the next year and would follow Iceman's exact path: TOPGUN, fighter pilot, four-star admiral, Pacific Fleet commander. > The hero of the movie is supposed to be Maverick, but the hero of the movie is actually Iceman. ## Now commanding the Pacific Paparo leads U.S. Pacific Command, the nation's oldest and largest geographic combatant command covering about half the earth's surface. He oversees 400,000 military and civilian personnel, 200 ships including five aircraft carrier strike groups, and over 1,000 aircraft. > If I do my job right, history will never know my name. ## His mission: prevent war Paparo's job is to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, an event that would challenge the foundations of the global system. His force and plans will last decades and could determine which power dominates the next century. ## China's historic military buildup China's defense spending has increased thirteen-fold over three decades and now exceeds the next twenty-two Indo-Pacific countries combined. Its navy has grown from a coastal force to the world's largest by hull count. ## The scale of China's expansion Twenty-five years ago, China's navy had thirty-seven warships. Today it has twelve times that. In just the last eighteen months, China delivered two cruisers, eight destroyers, eight frigates, an aircraft carrier, eleven submarines, and four amphibious ships. ## The 2027 deadline U.S. intelligence assesses that Xi Jinping has ordered his military to be capable of seizing Taiwan by force by twenty twenty-seven, the centenary of the People's Liberation Army. No invasion is currently planned for that year, but the capability will be in place. ## Taiwan's political crossroads Taiwan's presidential election in January twenty twenty-eight could shift the calculus. If the opposition Kuomintang wins, they are increasingly open to negotiations with Beijing, potentially lowering invasion risk. If President Lai Ching-te wins reelection, Beijing could significantly ramp up pressure. ## Deterrence by denial Paparo's strategy is to convince Xi that military action will cost too much. He must demonstrate credible combat power and capability while keeping America's strategic secrets hidden so China cannot build a counter to them. > It's demonstrating credible combat power, demonstrating capability and will, but keeping the crown jewels of the nation that are going to deliver combat success opaque to your counterparts. ## Winning without fighting Paparo quotes the Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu: winning without fighting is the acme of skill. His mission success is not to fight and win a war, but to provide deterrent capability so war never happens in the first place. > Mission success for me is not to fight and win a war; it's to provide a deterrent capability so that we never go to war in the first place. ## The hellscape strategy Inspired by Ukraine's drone defense against Russia, Paparo plans to saturate the Taiwan Strait with cheap, mass-produced precision drones and high-tech missiles to deny China the ability to land an amphibious assault or significantly delay it. > In the ways that Ukraine is about a six-hundred-mile-by-thirty-mile hellscape of drone warfare, I seek to put those principles at work to deter an armed invasion. ## The cost of conflict A twenty twenty-three CSIS war game found the U.S. and allies would defeat a Chinese amphibious invasion in most scenarios, but at substantial cost: two aircraft carriers, dozens of ships, and hundreds of aircraft, the heaviest American losses since World War Two. ## Fighting two wars at once Paparo's command is simultaneously fighting a war in Iran and preparing for potential conflict over Taiwan six thousand miles away. In March, the USS Charlotte submarine sank the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena, killing over one hundred Iranian sailors. > The Iranian frigate was sunk by us. ## Munitions running low The Iran war and U.S. support for Ukraine have depleted stockpiles of missile defense systems like Patriot and THAAD, and long-range ground attack missiles. A planned fourteen billion dollar arms package for Taiwan was put under review to preserve munitions for Iran. ## Pentagon turmoil under Hegseth At least twenty top military leaders have been fired or left since Pete Hegseth became Secretary of Defense. Hegseth has characterized departures as undoing what he saw as promotion of woke leadership based on race and gender quotas. ## Paparo's careful silence Reports indicate Paparo privately objected to using aircraft carrier strike groups for the Iran war and offered unvarnished views to Vice President JD Vance. But publicly, he remains circumspect, avoiding media and political food fights. ## Learning from Ukraine and Iran When asked about the impact of simultaneous wars, Paparo pivots to lessons learned: rapid drone deployment from Ukraine and AI-enabled targeting operations from Iran. He says the U.S. maintains robust inventories of anti-ship weapons needed for Pacific operations. ## A family legacy of service Paparo's father served four years in the Marine Corps and worked at the Philadelphia Naval Shipyard refitting aircraft carriers. His grandfather was a Seabee in the Navy's construction battalions across the Pacific during World War Two. Neither parent finished high school. > Serving for four years was intentional, and serving for forty was a blessing. ## From TOPGUN to command Paparo attended Villanova and joined TOPGUN, whose exacting culture shaped him. He flew F-14, F-15, and F-18 jets, clocking over six thousand flight hours and eleven hundred carrier landings before rising to admiral. > What the school confers is attention to detail, dedication to execution, dedication to getting better, and being introspective and running to your own problems. ## Learning from Admiral Nimitz Paparo's office displays a TIME cover from May eighteen, nineteen forty-two, showing Admiral Chester Nimitz, who led the U.S. to victory in the Pacific during World War Two. Nimitz adapted to rapid technological change, including the rise of aircraft carriers over battleships. > He adapted to change, including the unknown. That's the greatest leadership model I can think of. ## The quiet work of prevention Paparo hopes his plans go untested and are passed to the next commander. He sees his role not as heroic but as preventing the unforgiving hour when heroism becomes necessary. The best service prevents the need for it. > Mine is not a heroic story. Heroism is service that happens at the unforgiving hour. The best service prevents the unforgiving hour. ## Key takeaway Admiral Paparo's strategy is to build overwhelming defensive capability in the Taiwan Strait so that invasion becomes too costly for China to attempt, while managing resource constraints from simultaneous conflicts elsewhere.