# The Fog of Tech > Why war planning must prioritize human decisions over tech hype. - Title: The Fog of Tech · Foreign Affairs | Shortify - Summary: Why war planning must prioritize human decisions over tech hype. Policymakers risk losing sight of war's essentials by overreliance on technology, leading to… - Keywords: artificial intelligence, military strategy, war planning, technology trap, u.s. military, iran, ukraine, gulf war, hypersonic missiles, quantum computing, world, politics - Source: Foreign Affairs — https://foreignaffairs.com/united-states/fog-tech-artificial-intelligence-mara-karlin-ai - Author: Mara Karlin - Published: 2026-10-20T04:00:00+00:00 - Read time: 1 min - Topics: artificial intelligence, military strategy, war planning, technology trap, u.s. military, iran, ukraine, gulf war, hypersonic missiles, quantum computing, world, politics ## The technology trap Policymakers risk overreliance on technology, ignoring war's human fundamentals. > The risk of being overtaken by rivals such as China is real. ## The fog of tech War planners often mistake technological solutions for answers to war's core questions. > Who kills, who dies, and who decides? ## Historical lessons The Gulf War's tech advantage failed to prevent later insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq. > The U.S. military’s technological prowess in the 1:90, 91 Gulf War seemed to herald a new, high-tech American way of war. ## Ukraine war dynamics Russian drones and Ukrainian antidrone nets show tech's complex role in modern conflict. > Fishermen’s nets are one of the most effective antidrone defenses. ## The center of gravity Clarity on military goals prevents strategic confusion and ensures effective outcomes. > The hub of all power and movement, on which everything depends. ## Iranian resilience Iran survived U.S.-Israeli strikes through strategic adaptation and coalition management. > Iranian security officials engaged in a serious and intense effort to prepare. ## Coalition challenges U.S.-Israel coalition faced resistance from allies and struggled with coalition management. > Early on, several U.S. allies and partners denied the American military access to their territory. ## Casualty misjudgments AI targeting systems may increase civilian casualties due to flawed assumptions. > Israeli military personnel have been able to rapidly approve targets generated by an artificial intelligence system called Lavender. ## The Gulf War paradox Gulf War had low U.S. casualties but later conflicts showed tech's limitations. > Nearly 700,000 U.S. service members participated in the Gulf War in 1990, 91, and only 143 died. ## China's vulnerability China may be more susceptible to tech trap than U.S. due to less experience. > Countries that haven’t waged war in many decades, such as China, may be even more susceptible than the United States to the technology trap. ## Deterrence risks Tech overconfidence could weaken deterrence by encouraging escalation. > Policymakers are tempted to adopt a myopic approach to the use of force shaped by deterministic views of technology’s impact on the battlefield. ## The core lesson War's human elements remain essential despite technological advancements. > The fundamental nature of war will not change, even as the means of warfighting evolve. ## What happens next Policymakers must balance tech integration with human-centered war planning. > The most important thing for strategists and officials to grasp is that even though the means of warfighting will keep changing, the fundamental nature of war will not. ## Key takeaway Policymakers risk losing sight of war's essentials by overreliance on technology, leading to miscalculation and escalation.