# This Is Not The Start Of The Feared Bear

> Market decline signals seasonal weakness, not bear market start.
- Title: This Is Not The Start Of The Feared Bear · Seekingalpha
- Summary: Market decline signals seasonal weakness, not bear market start. ANG Traders' analysis shows last Friday's market drop is seasonal fiscal-year weakness, not…
- Keywords: ang traders, treasury rates, s&p 500, bear market, fiscal year, treasury collateral, money, business, Start, Feared, Bear, Seekingalpha
- Source: Seekingalpha — https://seekingalpha.com/article/4955586-this-is-not-the-start-of-the-feared-bear
- Author: ANG Traders
- Published: 2026-10-20T17:33:38+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: ang traders, treasury rates, s&p 500, bear market, fiscal year, treasury collateral, money, business
## Market Decline
Last Friday's market decline does not signal the start of a bear market.
## Seasonal Fiscal Weakness
Seasonal fiscal-year weakness is in play, not a bear market.
## Treasury Rate Inversion
Bear markets and recessions typically follow a second 10y-2y Treasury rate inversion by 6, 18 months.
## S&P 500 Stability
Rising Treasury collateral held by banks suggests S&P 500 unlikely to experience sustained near-term drop.
## Key takeaway

ANG Traders' analysis shows last Friday's market drop is seasonal fiscal-year weakness, not the start of a bear market.