# Trump and Xi meet, but don't expect breakthroughs > The U.S. and China are both weakened and risk-averse heading into their summit, making dramatic deals unlikely. - Title: Trump and Xi meet, but don't expect breakthroughs | Shortify - Summary: The U.S. and China are both weakened and risk-averse heading into their summit, making dramatic deals unlikely. Both Trump and Xi are constrained by domestic… - Keywords: trump, xi jinping, us-china relations, trade, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, taiwan, military purges, china aerospace studies institute, summit, washington, meet - Source: Foreign Policy — https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/22/trump-xi-summit-china-us-ai-trade-critical-minerals-iran-taiwan - Author: James Palmer - Published: 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00 - Read time: 2 min - Topics: trump, xi jinping, us-china relations, trade, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, taiwan, military purges, china aerospace studies institute, summit, washington ## Summit preview: low expectations Trump and Xi meet Thursday in Washington, but neither side is positioned for dramatic breakthroughs. The White House preparation has been chaotic, and both leaders face domestic constraints. ## Trump weakened by mineral leverage Trump is increasingly weak domestically after China tightened critical mineral exports last year. Beijing's leverage over rare earth supplies constrains his negotiating position. ## China avoids bigger economic fight China is still recovering from its property crisis and has no appetite for escalating economic conflict. It just staved off Trump's trade war and wants to avoid another round. ## Xi's goal: signal stability Xi's task is simply to signal business as usual and avoid triggering a Trump outburst. He has successfully managed Trump before and expects no change. ## Trade and minerals top agenda No official agenda exists yet, but managing the trade relationship and securing Chinese critical mineral supplies are likely top priorities for both sides. ## AI safety talks unlikely to succeed Artificial intelligence is expected on the agenda, but agreement is unlikely. The U.S. favors alignment frameworks, while China wants direct corporate accountability, making shared standards difficult. > holding companies and executives directly responsible for what they create ## Iran war not on agenda Trump has pulled back from confronting China over alleged support for Iran, and Xi has no incentive to raise it. Neither leader wants to discuss the issue. ## Taiwan risk: Trump's loose talk Xi will likely press Trump on Taiwan. Trump may parrot the last impressive person he spoke to and say something he shouldn't, triggering panic in Taiwan over potential U.S. abandonment. ## Taiwan's defense dilemma Taiwan's reliance on U.S. protection has often kept it from taking its own defense seriously. The fear of abandonment cuts both ways politically. ## 2027 invasion deadline fading U.S. officials once cited 2027 as Xi's deadline for military readiness to invade Taiwan, but this is now rarely mentioned. This reflects either growing uncertainty about Trump's commitment or that the claim was never well-founded. ## Military purges cripple PLA Xi has carved holes into the People's Liberation Army leadership through massive purges, leaving the military unfit for any serious campaign in the near term. Generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were formally expelled this week. ## Purges framed as political betrayal The expulsion language emphasizes political disobedience before corruption charges, casting the purges as personal betrayals of Xi's ideology rather than routine military discipline. > betray their original aspiration and mission ## U.S. dismantles China expertise The U.S. military is eliminating civilian positions at the China Aerospace Studies Institute, effectively dismantling decades of authoritative research on Chinese military capabilities. ## Destroying insight into rival Eliminating top China-focused think tanks is a curious choice, especially when the U.S. military is struggling to defeat far weaker opponents. The move follows Trump's gutting of civilian China studies infrastructure. ## Key takeaway Both Trump and Xi are constrained by domestic problems and have little incentive to make bold moves, so expect managed stability rather than major agreements.