# Trump's chaos leaves Ukraine peace deal distant > Donald Trump's erratic diplomacy and apparent tilt toward Russia are making a ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine increasingly unlikely, diplomats say. - Title: Trump's chaos leaves Ukraine peace deal distant · the Guardian - Summary: Donald Trump's erratic diplomacy and apparent tilt toward Russia are making a ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine increasingly unlikely… - Keywords: donald trump, ukraine, russia, volodymyr zelenskyy, vladimir putin, ceasefire, diplomacy, nigel gould-davies, energy ceasefire, starlink, russian diesel imports, news - Source: the Guardian — https://theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/15/thursday-briefing-thanks-to-an-erratic-trump-peace-in-ukraine-is-still-far-away - Published: 2026-10-15T05:44:12+00:00 - Read time: 3 min - Topics: donald trump, ukraine, russia, volodymyr zelenskyy, vladimir putin, ceasefire, diplomacy, nigel gould-davies, energy ceasefire, starlink, russian diesel imports, news ## Trump declares ceasefire nobody knew about Donald Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine on Sunday via Truth Social without consulting either side. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it was news to him. > news to me ## Putin responds by attacking power plants Vladimir Putin responded to Trump's ceasefire announcement by blowing up some Ukrainian power plants, continuing the fighting rather than halting it. ## UK doubles down on Ukraine support Andy Burnham hosted Zelenskyy at Downing Street, stating the UK is doubling down on its support for Ukraine and pointedly calling on others to follow suit. ## Trump restricts Ukrainian Starlink access Ukraine's military has had its access to Starlink satellite internet terminals restricted as the Trump administration increased pressure on Ukraine to halt long-range strikes on Russia's oil industry. ## Why peace deals fail: the overlap problem Career diplomat Nigel Gould-Davies explains that a peace agreement is only possible when both sides believe it better serves their interests to end fighting than to continue. > A peace agreement is only possible when both sides believe that it better serves their interests to end the fighting than to continue ## Ukraine willing to accept ceasefire Ukraine has repeatedly said it is willing to accept an unconditional ceasefire. Russia, by contrast, has repeatedly said publicly it is not interested in a ceasefire. ## Russia demands Ukraine's complete defeat Russia is only interested in a full and final end to the war that means decisive superiority and dominance over a severely weakened Ukraine, an outcome Ukraine cannot accept. ## Trump's ceasefire had no basis in reality Gould-Davies says Trump's energy ceasefire announcement had no basis whatsoever in reality. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv was aware. Trump simply made it up, a product of a fantasy. ## Trump's natural gravity favors Russia Trump's natural centre of gravity is to favour Russia, Gould-Davies says, citing restrictions on US weapons supplies and past pauses in intelligence sharing with Ukraine. ## Trump's theory: coerce Ukraine, concede to Russia For all Trump's lurching between positions, his theory of ending the war involves concessions to Russia and coercion of Ukraine, despite occasional support for Ukrainian targets. ## Trump plans Russian diesel imports Trump announced a plan to import Russian diesel in hopes of bringing down pump prices ahead of next month's midterms, dismaying European leaders and a bipartisan group of US senators. ## Diesel deal may hide bigger pro-Russia shift In diplomatic circles, concerns exist that the diesel deal is only the visible tip of the iceberg, with the White House privately pivoting towards a much more substantial pro-Russia tilt. > is only the visible tip of the iceberg ## Trump may seek Iran concessions via Putin Gould-Davies suspects Trump could be seeking to get Iran to ease the blockade on the strait of Hormuz via Russia, with Putin's quid pro quo being easing of sanctions and ending US support for Ukraine. ## Diplomats see collective delusion in talks Gould-Davies worries that diplomatic back channels perpetuate the illusion that peace may be around the corner, when there is literally no evidence Russia can be persuaded to change course. ## Europe focuses diplomacy on Washington European leaders and diplomats have descended on Washington when Trump veered too far off course, an Avengers assemble approach that has proved effective in averting the nightmare scenario of Trump abandoning transatlantic partners. ## White House is fractured, not unified The White House consists of many different players with different views from Trump. CIA director John Ratcliffe visited Moscow this summer, reportedly hoping to warn Russia against escalation into Europe. ## Diplomats play White House Kremlinology Western diplomats continue trying to shift the balance of influences within the White House, relying on understanding the different views and moods of those around Trump and who will be the last person to whisper… ## Key takeaway Trump announced an energy ceasefire without consulting either side, but Russia continues fighting and shows no interest in ending the war, while Trump's shifting priorities undermine diplomatic efforts.