# Trump's diesel deal with Putin may not ease midterm pain

> Diesel prices have reshaped financial markets and inflation forecasts, but experts say Trump's efforts to lower costs will barely move the needle with voters.
- Title: Trump's diesel deal with Putin may not ease midterm pain
- Summary: Diesel prices have reshaped financial markets and inflation forecasts, but experts say Trump's efforts to lower costs will barely move the needle with…
- Keywords: diesel prices, inflation, bond yields, trump administration, russia fuel deal, midterm elections, federal reserve, Trump's, diesel, deal, Putin, may
- Source: Fortune — https://fortune.com/2026/10/11/diesel-prices-10-year-bond-yields-crude-oil-inflation-trump-fuel-deal-putin-midterms
- Author: Jason Ma
- Read time: 2 min
- Topics: diesel prices, inflation, bond yields, trump administration, russia fuel deal, midterm elections, federal reserve
## Diesel prices reshape markets
The national average for diesel is about six dollars twenty-seven cents per gallon, down from six dollars fifty-two cents but still seventy-one percent above year-ago levels.Crude oil is up fifty-six percent from a year earlier.
## Diesel drives inflation, not crude
Because diesel is critical in manufacturing, agriculture and logistics, recent price surges have been felt broadly. Amrita Sen, director of market intelligence at Energy Aspects, says diesel and gasoline drive inflation, not crude oil.

> diesel and gasoline drive inflation, not crude oil
## Bond yields now track diesel, not crude
Since May, ten-year US Treasury yields have correlated more closely with diesel prices than crude prices for the first time ever, according to Amrita Sen.Higher fuel costs keep inflation forecasts elevated, pushing bond yields up.

> since May, 10-year US Treasury yields have correlated more closely with diesel prices than crude prices, for the first time ever
## Trump defers diesel tax, seeks Russian fuel
President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Monday to defer the twenty-four-cent federal tax per gallon on diesel until the end of the year.
## Russia to supply hundreds of thousands of tons
Russia will supply more than three hundred thousand tons of diesel now, followed by an additional five hundred thousand tons in November and one million tons immediately thereafter, according to Trump.
## Experts say relief will be minimal
Farmers and truckers said Trump's executive order will offer little relief, especially given per-gallon prices are two dollars sixty cents higher than a year ago while the federal tax is just twenty-four cents.
## Voters unlikely to reward fuel cost cuts
According to a new Politico Poll, just ten percent of undecided voters said they would be more likely to vote for a Republican if gas prices went down by one dollar a gallon versus fifty-seven…
## Key takeaway

Diesel price surges have driven inflation and reshaped bond markets, but Trump's tax deferral and Russian fuel deal are unlikely to significantly lower costs or sway midterm voters.