# Trump's diesel export ban would backfire, oil sector warns

> A temporary ban to lower fuel prices would instead trigger refinery shutdowns, higher gasoline costs, and global supply chaos, analysts say.
- Title: Trump's diesel export ban would backfire, oil sector warns
- Summary: A temporary ban to lower fuel prices would instead trigger refinery shutdowns, higher gasoline costs, and global supply chaos, analysts say. President Trump…
- Keywords: donald trump, diesel exports, fuel prices, oil refining, iran war, energy crisis, midterm elections, agriculture, Trump's, diesel, export, ban
- Source: Fortune — https://fortune.com/2026/09/23/trump-banning-diesel-exports-upset-oil-sector-upend-global-fuel
- Author: Jordan Blum
- Read time: 2 min
- Topics: donald trump, diesel exports, fuel prices, oil refining, iran war, energy crisis, midterm elections, agriculture
## Trump backs diesel export ban
With U.S. diesel prices at an all-time high, President Donald Trump said late Tuesday at the U.N. General Assembly in New York that he has called for a temporary ban on diesel exports.

> I've said let's not send out the diesel. We make a lot of diesel. I've called for it.
## The logic seems simple
Keeping diesel at home should lower prices and spare farmers, truckers, and all Americans from inflationary pressure. But analysts say the reasoning overlooks serious unintended consequences.
## How a ban would backfire
If forced to keep diesel at home, refineries would face a domestic glut and reduce operations. But refineries cannot cut diesel alone; they would also cut gasoline and jet fuel output.
## Oil producers would follow suit
As refineries reduce operations, oil producers would limit their activity to prevent a domestic crude glut. These ripple effects would push oil prices and gasoline costs even higher globally.
## The expert verdict
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said gasoline prices could rise toward record levels. The U.S. is not short of diesel; the world is.

> The cure would be far worse than the disease.
## Government splits on the idea
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said a ban would hurt U.S. refining and push up fuel prices, offering support for voluntary restrictions instead. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum also opposed the ban.
## Record fuel prices across America
The average U.S. diesel price of six dollars and fifty-two cents per gallon as of September twenty-third is an all-time high. California averages eight dollars and forty-three cents, with some stations at nine dollars and ninety-nine cents.
## Why prices are so high
The Iran war is disrupting Middle Eastern refineries, while Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out roughly forty percent of Russia's refining capacity. At least ten percent of global refining capacity is offline.
## The U.S. supplies one fifth of global diesel
The U.S. currently supplies about twenty percent of the world's global diesel exports. Banning exports would signal to buyers from South America to Europe that American supply is politically conditional.
## Industry warns of catastrophic consequences
The American Petroleum Institute says removing that much fuel from the global market would exacerbate the refining crisis and extend impacts far beyond fuel prices to supply chains, agriculture, shipping, and manufacturing.

> Consequences would be catastrophic.
## Farm pressure meets election timing
Farming harvest season is in full swing in September and the agricultural sector suffers from record diesel costs. Midterm elections are rapidly approaching, and farm-state Republicans including Senator Chuck Grassley are pushing for the ban.

> High diesel prices are killing farmers' incomes.
## Better alternatives exist
Patrick De Haan encouraged the White House to extend the Jones Act waiver beyond its November fifteenth expiration instead. The waiver allows more ships to move fuel from the U.S. Gulf Coast to California and elsewhere.

> Export bans are usually quick to go into place and slow to unwind, bringing lasting damage.
## Key takeaway

President Trump backed a diesel export ban to ease record fuel prices, but energy analysts warn it would cause refinery cuts, spike gasoline costs, and worsen global shortages.