# Trump's own policies are forcing a Fed hike

> Kevin Warsh was supposed to cut rates. Tariffs and the Iran war may leave him no choice but to raise them.
- Title: Trump's own policies are forcing a Fed hike · CNBC | Shortify
- Summary: Kevin Warsh was supposed to cut rates. Tariffs and the Iran war may leave him no choice but to raise them. Trump's tariffs and the Iran war stopped looking…
- Keywords: federal reserve, interest rates, inflation, tariffs, oil, business, finance, Trump's, own, policies, forcing, Fed
- Source: CNBC — https://cnbc.com/2026/09/14/warshs-credibility-is-on-the-line-this-week-as-trump-policies-put-pressure-on-fed-to-hike.html
- Author: Steve Liesman
- Published: 2026-09-14T17:26:21+00:00
- Read time: 2 min
- Topics: federal reserve, interest rates, inflation, tariffs, oil, business, finance
## Before the angry posts
Trump is expected to lash out if the Fed raises rates Wednesday. His own policies are the main reason a hike is on the table.

> he should look in the mirror
## Six months, full reversal
In March, with oil near $100 after the Iran war began, the average Fed official still penciled in a cut this year and another next year.
## First hike since 2023
Now markets expect the Fed to raise rates, and futures price in at least three increases through March of next year.
## Oil with no off-ramp
The Iran war has no end in sight and the Saudi East-West pipeline shut down temporarily. Fed officials have to assume oil stays expensive.
## Diesel at six dollars
Diesel hitting $6 a gallon pushes costs into food and transportation, spreading the shock well beyond the pump.
## Tariffs that keep coming
New levies on Canada answered Canada's retaliation, with more threatened. Small on their own, but they signal nothing here is a one-off.

> there is no guarantee of anything, especially tariffs, being one-off in the Trump presidency
## Kashkari changes his mind
The Minneapolis Fed president dissented, saying repeated supply shocks can entrench inflation the way they did in the 1970s.

> I increasingly believe that monetary policy does have an important role to play in addressing a series of successive supply shocks
## A chairman undermined early
By loudly demanding cuts and picking a chair he called sympathetic, Trump damaged Warsh's credibility on day one. Warsh cited not cutting as proof of independence.
## September is the test
Credibility alone would not justify a hike, but in a close call the Fed has more to lose by standing pat after Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech.

> Everything is pointing in the direction of September as a time to move if Warsh and his colleagues are going to maintain credibility
## Not judging, just measuring
The Fed never rules on whether a policy is good. It only reads the effect, and right now tariffs and Iran read as higher inflation ahead.
## Key takeaway

Trump's tariffs and the Iran war stopped looking like one-off price shocks, and that forces the Fed to hike even under a chairman he handpicked.