# Ukraine's energy war reaches a stalemate > Russia and Ukraine are locked in an escalating battle over energy infrastructure, but neither side can force the other to surrender through strikes alone. - Title: Ukraine's energy war reaches a stalemate · Foreign Affairs - Summary: Russia and Ukraine are locked in an escalating battle over energy infrastructure, but neither side can force the other to surrender through strikes alone. - Keywords: ukraine, russia, energy infrastructure, drone strikes, refineries, war, donald trump, kyiv, power grid, diesel, european commission, military support - Source: Foreign Affairs — https://foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/new-energy-stalemate-ukraine - Author: Tatiana Mitrova - Published: 2026-10-23T12:33:00+00:00 - Read time: 4 min - Topics: ukraine, russia, energy infrastructure, drone strikes, refineries, war, donald trump, kyiv, power grid, diesel, european commission, military support ## Trump pressures Ukraine on refineries The Trump administration has demanded Ukraine suspend attacks on Russian refineries, one of Kyiv's most effective weapons against Moscow. Trump has also waived U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel exports. ## Ukraine strikes deep into Russia Despite U.S. pressure, Ukraine launched successful mid-October drone attacks on an oil terminal in St. Petersburg and gas processing plants in Surgut and Novy Urengoy, 1,800 miles from the Ukrainian border. ## Ukrainian strikes cut Russian fuel output Since mid-2025, Ukrainian drone strikes have reduced Russian refinery throughput by roughly thirty percent and eroded Moscow's excess refining capacity, resulting in a gasoline shortfall of about ten percent. ## Russia's massive missile campaign Russia launched twelve thousand eight hundred missiles and drones at Ukrainian energy facilities in two thousand twenty-five and early two thousand twenty-six, compared with just two thousand eight hundred during the first three years of… ## Both sides target repair networks Russia and Ukraine now target substitutes and reserves that once cushioned losses. Following Russian strikes on power plants in early October, Ukrainians experienced widespread blackouts even though the national grid had electricity to spare. ## Ukraine's infrastructure damage bill As of November two thousand twenty-five, Ukraine had suffered seventeen point one billion dollars in direct damage to its electricity infrastructure, according to a report by the UN, the World Bank, and the European Commission. ## Europe supplies replacement equipment In two thousand twenty-five, the European Commission delivered equipment from a retired Lithuanian thermal power plant to Ukraine in one hundred forty-nine shipments, enabling Ukraine to provide power to one million people. ## Battery storage expands in Ukraine In September two thousand twenty-five, the Ukrainian energy company DTEK and U.S.-based battery maker Fluence installed battery storage at six sites around Kyiv and Dnipro with capacity to supply six hundred thousand households for two… ## Kyiv's heating crisis looms Kyiv has installed one hundred fifty megawatts of distributed power generation, but Ukrainian reports suggest two thousand five hundred to three thousand of Kyiv's twelve thousand apartment buildings could enter winter without an alternative heat… ## Russia's refinery losses mount In June, Ukrainian drones hit both processing units at Moscow's Kapotnya refinery. The refinery was shut down after the June attacks and halted processing again after a September strike. ## Russia adapts to fuel shortages Russia has loosened fuel standards, extended state subsidies to imported gasoline, and sent crude to Belarus for processing. These measures fill gas tanks but come at a cost consumers and the state must absorb. ## Global diesel shortage hits America Combined Russian and Middle Eastern net diesel and gasoil exports in September were one point three million barrels a day below their level a year earlier.The U.S.has blamed Ukraine for stubbornly high diesel prices. ## Trump threatens Ukraine's lifelines Washington could withhold Kyiv's access to Starlink satellite service or U.S. intelligence, or block European purchases of U.S. weapons for Ukraine, to pressure it to halt refinery strikes. ## Europe prepares winter support package In mid-October, the EU's ambassador to Ukraine described a one point one billion dollar energy support package Europe is preparing for the coming winter to enhance Ukraine's ability to recover. ## China and India sustain Russia's war China and India's purchases of Russian crude have helped sustain Russia's war machine. By refining discounted Russian barrels, both countries benefit their own industries and ease the global diesel crunch. ## Ukraine faces an impossible choice If Kyiv reduces attacks on Russian refineries to preserve U.S. military support, Moscow gains a repair window while the Ukrainian grid remains exposed. If Kyiv refuses, it risks losing U.S. intelligence and Starlink access. ## Energy war creates adaptation spiral Each side's resilience invites fresh attacks by the other. Each adjustment and workaround invites a new strike, and each new strike accelerates the search for new ways to endure, even as losses mount. > This adaptation spiral can continue even as economic and human losses mount. ## Only a cease-fire breaks the cycle Energy attacks alone are unlikely to force either side to accept the other's terms. A true cease-fire depends on political choices that energy strikes cannot determine. ## Key takeaway Russia and Ukraine wage an intensifying energy war neither can win decisively, while U.S. pressure on Ukraine to halt refinery strikes complicates Kyiv's survival strategy.