# U.S. is losing the Iran war by every metric > Despite military strikes and billions spent, America has failed to achieve its core strategic objectives against Iran. - Title: U.S. is losing the Iran war by every metric · Foreign Policy - Summary: Despite military strikes and billions spent, America has failed to achieve its core strategic objectives against Iran. The U.S. has spent $38.1 billion and… - Keywords: iran war, donald trump, united states military, middle east, iran nuclear program, strait of hormuz, houthi rebels, yemen, saudi arabia, oil prices, pete hegseth, dan caine - Source: Foreign Policy — https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/17/trump-united-states-losing-iran-war - Author: John Haltiwanger - Published: 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00 - Read time: 4 min - Topics: iran war, donald trump, united states military, middle east, iran nuclear program, strait of hormuz, houthi rebels, yemen, saudi arabia, oil prices, pete hegseth, dan caine ## Trump claims victory, but fighting escalates In March, Trump said the U.S. had already won the Iran war but needed to finish the job. Months later, fighting has intensified across the region with no end in sight and diplomacy stalled. ## The war costs mount with little progress The conflict has cost $38.1 billion, exposed military vulnerabilities, spread U.S. forces thin, and triggered a global energy crisis. It's deeply unpopular with American voters and even some Republicans. ## By every measure, America is losing Iran's ability to project regional power, its military capabilities, regime strength, and nuclear program have all remained intact or improved. The U.S. has failed its main strategic goals. > If you wind the clock back to February and take a look at what the U.S. stated it was trying to do, it's irrefutable that the U.S. failed in its main strategic goals. ## Goal one: dismantle Iran's proxy network Trump and military leaders promised to dismantle Iran's ability to project power through proxies. But Tehran's proxies remain a major threat months into the war. ## Houthis seize critical Red Sea chokepoint Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen made major territorial gains this month, seizing the port of Mocha and strategic islands. They now control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical shipping lane. ## Yemen risks returning to full civil war The Houthis and Saudi Arabia are exchanging fire, reigniting tensions from a civil war that began in 2014. Yemen is now on the verge of returning to full-blown conflict. ## Saudi pipeline damaged, oil supply threatened Saudi Arabia temporarily shut down its 750-mile East-West oil pipeline after a drone attack blamed on Iran-backed militants. The closure impacts roughly 4 percent of the world's oil supply. ## Hamas and Hezbollah weakened, but not by U.S. While Hamas and Hezbollah are now far weaker than before, this is almost entirely due to Israeli military actions in Gaza and Lebanon, not U.S. efforts. ## Goal two: destroy Iran's missile capability Trump administration officials claimed Iran's missile program was functionally destroyed. But Iran has resumed ballistic missile production in underground facilities despite thousands of U.S. strikes. ## Drones remain cheap and easy to produce Intelligence assessments contradict Trump's claims about Iran's military degradation. Drones are so inexpensive and simple to manufacture that destroying the capability entirely was always unrealistic. ## Goal three: topple the Iranian regime Trump promised Iranians their freedom was at hand and urged them to take over their government. But the regime remains intact and has actually become more entrenched and confident. > To the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. ## Regime now dominated by hostile military leaders Though top Iranian leaders including former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were killed, the regime is now dominated by military and security figures who are pragmatic but uniformly hostile to the West. > The regime is now more entrenched. It is more confident of its position inside Iran. It is more emboldened. ## Goal four: neutralize Iran's nuclear program Trump repeatedly claimed the U.S. obliterated Iran's nuclear program, but Iran still possesses roughly 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium. Its precise location remains unknown. ## Nuclear oversight has deteriorated significantly The International Atomic Energy Agency has not conducted verification activities in Iran for over six months and lost track of the uranium stockpile more than a year ago. > The Agency's lack of information about this nuclear material and access to facilities to verify it is a matter of serious proliferation concern. ## Construction surge at suspected nuclear site Satellite imagery shows a surge in construction activity at Pickaxe Mountain, a suspected nuclear facility, in 2026. Trump has threatened to strike if Iran continues activity there. ## Nuclear priority dropped for economic warfare The Trump administration has shifted focus from the nuclear issue to economic strangulation through a naval blockade and Operation Economic Outcast, a sanctions campaign to isolate Tehran. > Our objective is to sever every economic lifeline that sustains this tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone. ## Economic pressure unlikely to force concessions Iran's leadership has withstood U.S. economic pressure for decades, raising serious doubts about whether this new approach will actually move the needle in future negotiations. ## Hormuz now a managed crisis, not victory Oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has increased to 10 million barrels daily, but traffic remains a fifth of pre-war levels. The U.S. Navy must constantly defend tanker convoys at considerable cost. ## Oil prices remain elevated and unstable Brent crude oil sits around $104 per barrel, up from roughly $72 before the war began in February. The U.S. is managing the crisis but not removing the underlying risk. ## Key takeaway The U.S. has spent $38.1 billion and exposed military vulnerabilities while Iran's proxies remain strong, its nuclear program intact, and regional chaos spreading.