# Veritá Poll Shows Flávio Leads Lula by 2 Points

> Brazil's runoff election poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.1% support versus Lula's 48.9%.
- Title: Veritá Poll Shows Flávio Leads Lula by 2 Points | Shortify
- Summary: Brazil's runoff election poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.1% support versus Lula's 48.9%. Institute Veritá's latest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading…
- Keywords: brazil, elections, verita, flavio bolsonaro, lula, runoff, presidential election, polling, news, world, politics, Veritá
- Source: The Rio Times — https://riotimesonline.com/verita-poll-flavio-51-lula-49-runoff-2026
- Author: Carlos Silva
- Published: 2026-10-17T14:32:39+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: brazil, elections, verita, flavio bolsonaro, lula, runoff, presidential election, polling, news, world, politics
## Poll Release
Institute Veritá released a national runoff survey on Saturday 17 October 2026 showing Flávio Bolsonaro at 51.1% and Lula at 48.9%.
## Valid Votes
The poll counts valid votes, excluding blank and spoiled ballots, with a 2-point gap between candidates.
## Margin of Error
The survey has a 1 percentage point margin of error at 95% confidence with 15,554 interviews across all 27 Brazilian states.
## Fieldwork Dates
Interviews ran from Monday 12 to Friday 16 October 2026, a day after Datafolha's poll release.
## Datafolha Comparison
Datafolha reported Flávio at 51% and Lula at 49% on 15 October, matching Veritá's range.
## Prediction Markets
Polymarket and Kalshi predict Flávio Bolsonaro with 76.8% and 79% chance of winning the runoff.
## Unknowns
The poll does not include raw totals, so undecided voters and blank ballots remain unknown.
## Runoff Date
Brazil's presidential runoff election occurs on Sunday 25 October 2026.
## Election Context
Flávio Bolsonaro represents the conservative Liberal Party (PL), while Lula represents the left-wing Workers' Party (PT).
## Key takeaway

Institute Veritá's latest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula by 2 points in Brazil's 2026 presidential runoff.