# What if No One Wins the Israeli Election? > Netanyahu's election gamble risks war to stay in power as Israel's vote may not decide its future. - Title: What if No One Wins the Israeli Election? · Foreign Policy - Summary: Netanyahu's election gamble risks war to stay in power as Israel's vote may not decide its future. Israel's election could result in a minority government… - Keywords: israel, netanyahu, eisenkot, knesset, parliamentary majority, arab-led parties, settlements, judicial overhaul, gaza, haredim, election, israeli election - Source: Foreign Policy — https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/10/20/israel-election-netanyahu-eisenkot-trump-palestinians-gaza - Author: David E. Rosenberg - Published: 2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00 - Read time: 2 min - Topics: israel, netanyahu, eisenkot, knesset, parliamentary majority, arab-led parties, settlements, judicial overhaul, gaza, haredim, election, israeli election ## Israeli election stakes This election could decide whether Israel continues down the path of illiberalism, insularity, and aggressive military policies or returns to liberal values and mends international ties. ## Netanyahu's seat count Netanyahu's religious and far-right allies would capture no more than 49 seats, according to the latest polls. ## Opposition seat count The opposition parties united to remove Netanyahu would win no more than 54 seats, far from the 61 needed for a parliamentary majority. ## Arab-led parties Two Arab-led parties could theoretically provide the anti-Netanyahu bloc with the margin to govern, but several members have ruled out including them in a future government. ## Polling reliability Israeli polls have a poor record predicting outcomes due to right-wing distrust of pollsters and potential for large voter turnout shifts. ## Netanyahu's tactics Netanyahu may resort to extreme tactics to remain in power, including starting a war before the election or creating chaos at polling places. ## Netanyahu's influence Netanyahu reportedly urged Trump to resume attacks on Iran before the election, though his office denies he did so. ## Eisenkot's government If the anti-Netanyahu bloc falls short of 61 seats, Eisenkot would form a minority government with Arab-led parties providing a parliamentary safety net. ## Eisenkot's agenda An Eisenkot government would reverse Netanyahu's judicial overhaul, form a state commission into the Oct. 7 attack, and bar criminal suspects from holding prime ministerial office. ## Settler challenges Extremist settlers would likely continue anti-palestinian violence even without government backing, supported by many Israeli soldiers. ## Haredi challenges Ultra-Orthodox groups would resist drafting young men into the army, with their anger growing as the army arrests draft-dodgers. ## Netanyahu's response Netanyahu would likely launch scorched-earth policies targeting potential coalition defectors if he stays as Likud leader. ## Likely outcome Israel may face political limbo with a minority government that reverses some policies but struggles with settler and ultra-Orthodox challenges. ## Interim government If Netanyahu remains prime minister in a caretaker government, the Knesset could pass legislation to roll back problematic laws. ## Final consequence Israel would face political limbo, divided and directionless as it deals with security threats and international isolation. ## Key takeaway Israel's election could result in a minority government led by Eisenkot that reverses Netanyahu's judicial overhaul but faces challenges from settlers and ultra-Orthodox.