# Why economists get interest rate predictions wrong

> Economists often mispredict interest rates despite market signals.
- Title: Why economists get interest rate predictions wrong | Shortify
- Summary: Economists often mispredict interest rates despite market signals. Economists typically mispredict interest rates; bond markets better indicate future rate…
- Keywords: interest rates, bond markets, bank of canada, mortgage rates, economists, rate predictions, fixed mortgage rates, variable mortgage rates, Financial Post
- Source: Financial Post — https://financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/why-economists-get-interest-rate-predictions-wrong
- Author: Robert McLister
- Published: 2026-10-30T22:06:52+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: interest rates, bond markets, bank of canada, mortgage rates, economists, rate predictions, fixed mortgage rates, variable mortgage rates, money, business
## Economists' rate predictions
Economists often mispredict interest rates despite market signals.
## Bank of Canada rate hike
Bank of Canada raised interest rates in 2026 despite economists predicting no hikes.
## Economists' confidence
Economists had high confidence in rate predictions but poor track records.
## Market signals
Bond markets predicted rate hikes months before economists.
## Forward curve
Forward curve showed 75 to 125 basis points of rate tightening over 12 months.
## Economists' mistakes
Most economists predicted no rate hikes despite market signals.
## Scotiabank's accuracy
Scotiabank economists predicted rate hikes in 2026 ahead of others.
## Mortgage advice
Floating mortgages work better than fixed rates except at major inflection points.
## Rate cycle management
Monitor two-year government bond yields to manage mortgage risk.
## Key takeaway
Ignore economists' rate predictions; follow bond market signals instead.
## Key takeaway

Economists typically mispredict interest rates; bond markets better indicate future rate moves.